TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa355…a3a2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$42.47
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.4
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$62.32
Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$72.8
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.3%+$39.88
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+28.2%+$35.86
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$14.84
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$481.36
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$131.34
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+63.9%+$17.55
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$201.01
Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$166.09
Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.92
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+244.8%+$168.98
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+505.4%+$412.4
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+69.5%+$70.11
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$139.05
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$41.04
Will Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$116.08
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$146.63
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$618Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+108.3%+$669.24
Will Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+56.3%+$73.44
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+124.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.62
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.5
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$414.4
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$533Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$356.89
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.36
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$207.9
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$334.43
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$115.62
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.03
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$73.59
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.24
Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$115.44
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.6
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$89.75
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$222.5
Will the Phoenix Suns win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+1,900%+$192.85
All 17 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+61.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.46
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$320.76
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.44
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+25%+$59.8
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+29.9%+$104.88
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+31.6%+$62.88
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+270.4%+$459.17
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$60.31
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+284.6%+$321.9
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+33.3%+$108.75
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+426.3%+$76.95
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$539Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$179.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+84.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$281.49
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$99
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$16.81
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+300%+$725.25
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+439.7%+$340.55
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+108.3%+$71.76
Will Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched song on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$29.76
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+112.8%+$48.23
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+138.1%+$152.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump’s approval rating be 40.0–41.9% on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+88.7%+$54.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$34.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.57
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.