Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8d533bb9045cb1843318887970e3c2408320b5edb13332d831c4030e500c131
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 368 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 42c | 3,747$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed Yes | 63c | 3,341$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 71c | 3,279$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 79c | 3,000$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 65c | 2,764$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 11c | 2,726$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 18cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 26c | 2,472$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 22c | 2,271$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.26 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 60c | 2,119$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.78 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,784$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 35c | 1,563$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.42 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,454$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.73 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed No | 25c | 1,326$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 39c | 1,175$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6e…4862backed No | 60c | 1,100$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…dd28backed Yes | 37c | 1,034$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20cf…6e2bbacked Yes | 22c | 999.78$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 913.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 31c | 900$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…838dbacked No | 27c | 863$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 21c | 842.33$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.52 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed Yes | 75c | 832$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 51c | 831.76$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.75 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 22c | 819.58$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.27 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 32c | 817.05$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.34 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked Yes | 76c | 812$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…a94dbacked No | 25c | 801$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 799.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 42c | 799.82$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.38 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed Yes | 75c | 780$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 24c | 769.25$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.9 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 20c | 748$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.4 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed Yes | 73c | 739$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed No | 26c | 739$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 51c | 721.43$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 75c | 706$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 75c | 703$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d86…d0a2backed No | 24c | 699$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 26c | 692.88$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 62c | 672.86$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +1,386.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 74c | 662$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 75c | 607$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 596.5$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.22 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 75c | 574$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 3c | 566.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 77c | 555$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed No | 49c | 551$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 75c | 523$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked No | 25c | 512$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 25c | 509$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed Yes | 75c | 504$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 24c | 502$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +169.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 62c | 495$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.85 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…cb94backed Yes | 73c | 490$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd925…f36fbacked No | 74c | 481.3$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 477.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.95 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 21c | 470$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.57 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 70c | 466$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 34c | 464$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 27c | 458$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 19c | 451$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 22c | 450$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.5 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 56c | 445.59$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.41 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked No | 25c | 416$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 19c | 410$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 64c | 401$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed No | 64c | 395$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed Yes | 44c | 379$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 74c | 369$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 70c | 360$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 356.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 75c | 353$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 19c | 348$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed Yes | 72c | 346$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed Yes | 73c | 344$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 34c | 342$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 75c | 340$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 25c | 340$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 45c | 336$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 52c | 322$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 20c | 321$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 20c | 320$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 37c | 320$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed No | 56c | 319$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…478ebacked Yes | 58c | 318.2$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 79c | 312$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 22c | 308$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed No | 25c | 308$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 57c | 307$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed Yes | 17c | 298$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 21c | 297$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 26c | 292$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed Yes | 75c | 292$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…becfbacked Yes | 45c | 291.84$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…c285backed No | 79c | 290$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 34c | 284$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.59 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 25c | 283$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked No | 75c | 277$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.34per pick | 62cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.