Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa415d05f8763152be270e4243971a411d2a0f8d13ba5d93ee28b853f90b42d48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x852c…2453backed Yes | 0c | 12,226$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…4bc3backed Yes | 0c | 9,990$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 14c | 6,933$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.93 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 3c | 3,003$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,703$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 30c | 1,564$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.91 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,428$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…dc1ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,387$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 67c | 926.6$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 66c | 845.22$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.56 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…5879backed Yes | 31c | 831.11$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 32c | 612.4$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 65c | 605$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…a086backed Yes | 27c | 552.75$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 36c | 513$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 35c | 480$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed Yes | 11c | 460$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Yes | 31c | 454.16$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed Yes | 35c | 395$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed Yes | 36c | 395$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked No | 65c | 375$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 12c | 371.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 34c | 370$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 10c | 347$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed No | 50c | 345$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 75c | 336.25$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…a0bcbacked No | 62c | 334.92$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 65c | 334$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked No | 65c | 319$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 35c | 313$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed No | 64c | 306$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 35c | 302$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 21c | 300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes | 35c | 297$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 35c | 293$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 35c | 291$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 34c | 282$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked No | 65c | 279$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 275$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 15c | 272$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed No | 65c | 272$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 35c | 258$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 35c | 248$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed No | 65c | 244$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 33c | 236$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 64c | 228.18$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 64c | 227$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 65c | 227$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked Yes | 36c | 226$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…d536backed Yes | 22c | 225$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 65c | 223$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 35c | 223$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 61c | 218$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed No | 65c | 216$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 65c | 214$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 64c | 212$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 64c | 211$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed No | 65c | 211$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 65c | 207.05$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3811backed No | 65c | 207$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed No | 64c | 203$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 33c | 201.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cf…6e2bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 36c | 198.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed No | 66c | 196$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked Yes | 36c | 196$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed No | 67c | 194.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 14c | 191.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…1a85backed Yes | 17c | 190$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 39c | 187$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 64c | 186$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 35c | 184$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 67c | 183$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 33c | 182$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 65c | 181$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed No | 65c | 177$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 174.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 35c | 172$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 54c | 170$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed No | 65c | 169$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 35c | 166$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 65c | 165$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed No | 65c | 161$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…2d2cbacked No | 61c | 161$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes | 36c | 158$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 35c | 158$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked Yes | 35c | 157$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 66c | 145$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 64c | 144$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked No | 67c | 144$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 67c | 142$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed Yes | 33c | 142$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.