Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x428406206db04db6c9409ba44e5e8ef81d5b67ac92d20cac43d08ee86c27e0aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 10c | 6,023$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…7f4fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,542$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…2814backed Yes | 14c | 2,152$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +282.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 1,634$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.03 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…d8b8backed Yes | 11c | 1,080$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 16c | 1,080$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.01 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…124fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…fe93backed Yes | 11c | 939.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 20c | 897.08$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.97 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 30c | 836$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…b0e3backed Yes | 4c | 794.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…af58backed Yes | 41c | 737.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…c0cabacked Yes | 29c | 733.22$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 72c | 726$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.71 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 7c | 688.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 23c | 673.18$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.31 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 632.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 36c | 620$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 75c | 602.91$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 25c | 599.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 71c | 596.24$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…dd28backed No | 73c | 517.18$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 18c | 502$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 74c | 497$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 468$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed No | 75c | 465$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196d…cc09backed Yes | 11c | 449.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 24c | 437$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 79c | 418.24$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 21c | 415$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 27c | 414$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed No | 64c | 410$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…279ebacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 78c | 395.84$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed No | 69c | 384$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 75c | 375$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 25c | 373$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 76c | 367$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed Yes | 31c | 362$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 5c | 350$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…2c48backed Yes | 29c | 347.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc778…e52fbacked Yes | 10c | 341.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 29c | 340$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed Yes | 32c | 332$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 77c | 330$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 66c | 322$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed No | 71c | 313$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No | 75c | 310$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 17c | 308$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c9…cc4cbacked Yes | 7c | 301.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 77c | 300$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 73c | 287.6$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 8c | 270$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 76c | 270$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 9c | 269$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 30c | 267.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…5fa0backed No | 65c | 264.8$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 18c | 263$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 74c | 262$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 23c | 257$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…57eabacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed Yes | 29c | 249$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked No | 75c | 246$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 25c | 245$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 74c | 229$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 224.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 27c | 224.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 26c | 222$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 33c | 211.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 76c | 211$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed No | 68c | 211$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 74c | 208$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc666…7130backed No | 73c | 205$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed No | 79c | 202$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…e737backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 12c | 194.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.11 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 28c | 191$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 20c | 191$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 28c | 191$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc32a…7c05backed Yes | 34c | 189$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 66c | 189$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed No | 67c | 188$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 73c | 188$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 24c | 184.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed Yes | 36c | 183$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 64c | 183$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 29c | 182.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed No | 74c | 181$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 68c | 181$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes | 33c | 179.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 28c | 176$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed No | 72c | 172$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 72c | 172$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked No | 71c | 171$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 24c | 170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 68c | 168$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…9907backed Yes | 36c | 162$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 58c | 160.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.