TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf085…a01f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
153
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Weather, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 56 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$202.57
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70.7
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.84
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.14
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$100.8
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.69
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.09
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.68
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+25%+$24
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.2
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$251.56
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$485.99
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.27
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$311.37
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+37%+$127.44
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$238.68
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$103.21
Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+26.6%+$19.74
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+68.1%+$31.59
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+28.2%+$3.74
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$37.9
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$309.96
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+89.5%+$73.21
All 24 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$87.34
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.5
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.68
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.91
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$321.86
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+132.6%+$168.72
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+212.5%+$444.04
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$46.64
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$301.28
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$180.9
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$43.89
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$616Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+66.7%+$410.8
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$332.1
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+58.7%+$22.57
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$59.22
Will the US strike Iran next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+35.1%+$27.56
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$53.48
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$117.6
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+42.9%+$43.8
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$210.94
All 20 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$795Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$447.12
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$191.7
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.1
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$63.12
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+96.1%+$303.8
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$173.52
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$158.8
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$606Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$606
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$48.15
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+270.4%+$443.84
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+253.1%+$711.79
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$134.96
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+669.2%+$201.84
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$64.64
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$604Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$212.16
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+46.2%+$57.22
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$50.16
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+177.8%+$187.52
All 18 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+153.1%+$369.6
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,371Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$1,609.2
Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.95
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$58.22
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.38
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.04
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.3
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.02
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$170.34
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$111.6
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$82.82
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$209.23
Will In Your Dreams be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$113.62
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$41.8
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+31.6%+$97.92
Will Good Hang with Amy Poehler win Best Podcast at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$176.54
All 16 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$48.53
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$9.84
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.09
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$401.44
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $610b and $620b on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.96
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$743Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$742.53
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$102.91
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$452Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$135.01
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$85.36
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.1
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$101.21
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$35.36
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$187.96
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$280.77
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$174.72
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$509Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$509.02
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$374.99
Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$73.78
Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+452.5%+$354.63
Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11.76
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+150%+$151.8
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+117.4%+$221.4
Odds of Newsom Dem Pres Nominee over 40% by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$28.21
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$58.8
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$68.4
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.63
Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.2
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.17
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.52
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.67
Will John Cornyn come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$57.98
Will Mills flip Platner for Maine Dem Senate Primary Winner by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$202.05
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+222.6%+$157.32
All 8 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+108.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Blackburn Beavers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$492.1
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Clemson Tigersbacked Clemson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$447Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$446.94
Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-4.5)backed Southern Illinois Salukis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$490.16
Siena Saints vs. Rider Broncs: O/U 135.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$186.37
All 4 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+190.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+59.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick31cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.64
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$196.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.66
KHL: HC Sochi vs. CSKA Moscowbacked HC Sochi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+95.3%+$193.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+51.5%+$106.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+31.6%+$72.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+28.2%+$36.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$297.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$437.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tulane make the College Football Playoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$127.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$584Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$583.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.