NHL · resolved market
KHL: HC Sochi vs. CSKA Moscow
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2f076095dd6415a93dfa04d465d91cdebf88088a384a658dd6373e892d3bb3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CSKA Moscowof HC Sochi, CSKA Moscow
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,960 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5322…95e1backed HC Sochi | 28c | 662$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed CSKA Moscow | 72c | 633$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed HC Sochi | 13c | 624$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed HC Sochi | 13c | 622$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked HC Sochi | 22c | 595.73$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed CSKA Moscow | 61c | 340.64$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.69 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed CSKA Moscow | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked HC Sochi | 13c | 224$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed CSKA Moscow | 77c | 191.48$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed CSKA Moscow | 20c | 176.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.59 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed CSKA Moscow | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked HC Sochi | 23c | 99.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked HC Sochi | 23c | 91.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed CSKA Moscow | 77c | 90.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed CSKA Moscow | 78c | 83.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…fa01backed CSKA Moscow | 78c | 63.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed HC Sochi | 22c | 63.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked CSKA Moscow | 78c | 56.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked CSKA Moscow | 56c | 40.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed CSKA Moscow | 37c | 40.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked CSKA Moscow | 77c | 38.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 177 | 65.5%116 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked HC Sochi | 31c | 35.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…5ee6backed CSKA Moscow | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…5638backed CSKA Moscow | 79c | 31.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 91 | 68.1%62 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c3…0a99backed CSKA Moscow | 77c | 31.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed CSKA Moscow | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked CSKA Moscow | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.