AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2b077c18b6625bea66427e8e8b249fd4ee00478fcbe82b1f3afed5c61b184bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,465 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed Yes | 32c | 1,431$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +203.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 52c | 1,304$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 29c | 1,088$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 50c | 967$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.16 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 2c | 905.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes | 20c | 904$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2111…667fbacked Yes | 58c | 875$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked Yes | 67c | 842$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 71c | 819$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 42c | 809$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 29c | 792$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.68 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 27c | 785$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes | 77c | 750$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…c2dfbacked Yes | 78c | 719$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…6fb2backed Yes | 64c | 703$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed No | 36c | 697$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +91%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 68c | 680$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked No | 34c | 673$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 626.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 65c | 568$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked No | 35c | 568$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 48c | 554$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.96 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 66c | 530$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 66c | 493$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed No | 34c | 493$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…41f6backed No | 80c | 454$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked No | 48c | 453$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 71c | 432$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked Yes | 78c | 421$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1697…4cf6backed No | 22c | 421$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 80c | 415$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 71c | 415$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.35 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 22c | 409$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 22c | 402$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 78c | 388$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed Yes | 73c | 366$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked No | 23c | 358$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed Yes | 20c | 345$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 80c | 345$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed No | 26c | 342$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 11c | 331.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed No | 41c | 317$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 62c | 304$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 66c | 303$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed No | 69c | 291$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 20c | 290$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed No | 80c | 290$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No | 33c | 243$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 71c | 241$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed No | 48c | 236$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 33c | 220$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 74c | 217$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 27c | 191$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8ad4backed No | 68c | 176$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 27c | 175$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…1e7cbacked Yes | 60c | 166.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc32a…7c05backed Yes | 78c | 111$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 99.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 21c | 96.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed Yes | 74c | 82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1877…78d7backed No | 36c | 69.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 42c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 37c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa95d…6a82backed No | 39c | 61.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 48c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…6ee3backed Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed No | 26c | 50.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 80c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 36.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 63c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 40c | 31.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…b8a7backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 68c | 25.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 54c | 25.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.