TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9bf8…c7af

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
111
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Macro Indicators, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Macro Indicators at 54 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$426.98
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$37.4
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.57
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+354.5%+$485.94
Will "Hamnet" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$678Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$226
Will Lucinda M. Margolis - Jeopardy! win Best Director of a Reality / Quiz & Game at the 78th DGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$181.09
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$397.38
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+60.6%+$116.17
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+108.3%+$22.36
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$14.57
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+69.5%+$19.27
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$123.12
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+53.8%+$30.45
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+138.1%+$129.92
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$106.32
Will Stephen Graham (Adolescence) win Best Actor – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$30.42
Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+29.9%+$3.45
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$74.58
Will Douglas Aibel & Nina Gold (Jay Kelly) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$96.8
Will Orwell: 2+2=5 be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+42.9%+$39
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$122.46
All 21 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$376Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$161.1
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.82
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.78
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$393.3
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$249
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$66.9
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$151.36
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$420.42
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$94.36
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+53.8%+$27.65
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+60%+$24.75
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+49.3%+$105.93
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$32.64
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$196.54
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$54.74
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.94
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$86.25
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$52.2
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$112.59
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$425Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+61.3%+$260.68
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$150.04
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+270.4%+$152.57
Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$123.54
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$255.2
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+96.1%+$52.03
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$60.95
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$148.28
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$77.43
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$22.77
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$331.84
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.19
Will the Brooklyn Nets have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+44%+$231.12
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$122.2
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$94
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.64
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.76
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$606Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$259.5
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.8
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$125.28
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$251.1
Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+44.9%+$78.12
GPT ads by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+354.5%+$114.66
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$36.1
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$43.5
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$19.26
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.72
Canada recession before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.16
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$11.82
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$78.66
Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+61.3%+$229.9
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$56.5
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$17.43
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+132.9%+$154.06
All 8 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+139.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$26.52
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$174.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$764.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "2026" this week? (January 18)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+233.3%+$205.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$52.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+49.3%+$170.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$183.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Eastern Illinois Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$120.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$35.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tulane make the College Football Playoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$50.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.