Middle East · resolved market
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b41890d5e8c9640649a9e6f724d1f74aa67af855506db6f871c5fdac70cfd90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 22,531$12,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,760.24 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 53c | 13,000$6,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,048.34 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…513bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 47c | 8,062$3,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,806 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451c…2856backed No | 43c | 5,348$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 45c | 4,449$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.49 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…e0b8backed No | 52c | 4,418$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.38 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 72c | 4,234$3,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.9 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed No | 39c | 2,628$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.33 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed No | 57c | 2,597$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.43 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 39c | 2,483$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.95 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 41c | 2,448$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.8 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 58c | 2,419$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.34 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…51fbbacked No | 1c | 2,141$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.47per pick | 16cpaid | +304.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 41c | 1,915$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.52 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,835$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.16 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,563$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.74 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 59c | 1,443$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.78 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked No | 38c | 1,312$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 59c | 1,233$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.89 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 56c | 1,215$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.57 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 33c | 1,193$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.31 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 60c | 1,100$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a57…9299backed No | 39c | 1,076$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.64 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 37c | 1,002$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.22 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 55c | 999.34$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.73 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 42c | 922.95$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.66 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 41c | 915.79$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.77 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 59c | 906$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.46 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 44c | 811.78$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 54c | 810.07$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.85 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 53c | 792.4$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.68 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 29c | 777$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 43c | 775$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 40c | 734$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked No | 57c | 729$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked Yes | 39c | 729$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 719.69$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.87 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked No | 60c | 703$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 62c | 686$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 38c | 667$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked Yes | 62c | 665$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 63c | 638$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.94 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked No | 40c | 634$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 66c | 628.86$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.81 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 62c | 628$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 54c | 615.37$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.34 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed Yes | 38c | 611$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked No | 62c | 605$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.1 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 50c | 600$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 37c | 599$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.63 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 29c | 587$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.77 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 585$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…2bfbbacked No | 40c | 582.51$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 41c | 569$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…6c72backed No | 43c | 556$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 52c | 554.99$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.59 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…dce7backed No | 36c | 554.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 39c | 552$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.72 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 26c | 549$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.64 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 48c | 531.21$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.04 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 66c | 527.47$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.32 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 511.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…42b7backed No | 67c | 505$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…cdd3backed No | 67c | 498$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed No | 61c | 485$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes | 38c | 477$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 62c | 473$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked No | 71c | 471$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 71c | 470$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66b…e6ddbacked No | 49c | 470$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 62c | 456$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.72 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked Yes | 60c | 454.13$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.07 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 38c | 451$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.62 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…6874backed Yes | 45c | 445.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 61c | 415.64$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.1 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 55c | 415.03$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.21 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 38c | 412$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed No | 40c | 403$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 37c | 401$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed No | 67c | 393$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 33c | 393$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…7848backed Yes | 66c | 385.33$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.74 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09bf…b9d6backed Yes | 36c | 378.04$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…18fabacked Yes | 74c | 377.5$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 17c | 376.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 62c | 376$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…4479backed No | 40c | 376$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.84 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 60c | 368$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed No | 40c | 367$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 57c | 367$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes | 43c | 367$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed No | 58c | 365$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 61c | 357$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed Yes | 63c | 351$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 26c | 347.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?this page
- U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.