TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcb9f…ee38

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 57 out of 100; worst Movies at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+105.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.84
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$410.48
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$152.72
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.46
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$131.22
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$126.99
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$896Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$896.16
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$332
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$66.66
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+566.7%+$272.85
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+212.5%+$112.88
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+40.8%+$147.61
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$501.36
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,077Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,077.12
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$153.87
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$218.8
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$252.63
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+92.3%+$250.56
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+69.5%+$21.73
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$455.52
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+177.8%+$46.08
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+63.9%+$61.62
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$353.4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$18.06
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+72%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canada recession before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.7
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.58
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$268.16
Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.96
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$757Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+137.9%+$1,043.22
Will the Social Democrats’ Popular Vote Margin of Victory in the 2026 Denmark Parliamentary Election be between 5% and 10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$499.95
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$95.36
Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+785%+$808.06
Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$131.84
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.06
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$287.64
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$507Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$507.17
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.2
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+233.3%+$615.3
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+31.6%+$90.48
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$67.2
Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$43.56
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+50.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Levante UD win on 2025-12-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+31.6%+$144.96
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+44.9%+$32.24
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$160.8
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+142.7%+$127.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$471.91
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$63.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$192.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Galatasaray advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+222.6%+$149.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$344.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+95.7%+$51.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Team Falcons qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$937Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$482.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.24
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.