AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2201f0f1e6a44f28784dcc85505e68cb6959d597541eda46c29848756309b983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 25c | 4,814$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.37 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 75c | 3,001$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,837$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…d368backed Yes | 8c | 1,481$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed Yes | 14c | 964$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 75c | 900$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 21c | 886.76$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.29 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 22c | 797$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 13c | 734$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked Yes | 15c | 687$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked Yes | 12c | 682$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 70c | 623.85$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.54 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 78c | 456$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 31c | 424.84$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked Yes | 13c | 413$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae87…5bafbacked Yes | 12c | 403.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 78c | 303$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 41c | 277.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 270.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…2331backed Yes | 26c | 250$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…55a5backed Yes | 40c | 234.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f3b5backed Yes | 28c | 211.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked No | 49c | 183$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 160.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 72c | 147$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 138.68$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed No | 75c | 137$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 35c | 134.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 41c | 134.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25dd…4ce1backed Yes | 16c | 133.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 119.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0390…f0d5backed Yes | 47c | 117.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 96.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed Yes | 43c | 92.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 91.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 24c | 88.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed Yes | 15c | 87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 86.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…e8cabacked Yes | 19c | 80.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6666…ff48backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 34c | 57.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…8defbacked Yes | 35c | 56.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…5fb6backed Yes | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 51.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…8d1cbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…95a7backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Yes | 25c | 48.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 54c | 48.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 28c | 42.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…03e0backed Yes | 52c | 42.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 24c | 41.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…a605backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 71c | 37.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 37.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 71c | 37.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 70c | 33.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 62c | 30.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 28.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 63c | 28.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…200ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed No | 56c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…03f7backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on February 28?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $630b on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.