AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbe094e12996b0f261ccc5a6a5e8604b19d93c6e5aa71c2989fc09e60aecf677
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,945$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 14c | 1,564$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.93 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 15c | 1,041$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.92 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 17c | 992$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.64 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 20c | 966.03$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.56 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed No | 80c | 649$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…d368backed Yes | 20c | 510$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 13c | 493$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 16c | 468.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 80c | 433.47$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 20c | 414$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 18c | 397$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 80c | 386.71$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 9c | 354.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 17c | 266.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…2331backed Yes | 23c | 250$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 11c | 228.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 79c | 219.76$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 182.75$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f3b5backed Yes | 18c | 115.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 87.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 81.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…1055backed Yes | 20c | 79.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 40.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on February 28?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $630b on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.