AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdde8d8d1cd5fe0e0f9f16a15690146908a408181cbf54d3d912e55e51c8267aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 6c | 926.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 421.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…1c59backed Yes | 12c | 411.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 12c | 357.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 7c | 349.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…2331backed Yes | 8c | 259.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 204.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 7c | 161.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 139.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x29f6…6448backed Yes | 16c | 128.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…a482backed Yes | 15c | 98.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 15c | 81.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…1055backed Yes | 15c | 76.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…e5ccbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +285.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on February 28?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $630b on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.