AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2372cb87bb285f586e00c8d51090a26dc740904fc9f8282d9731e98f560620a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 59c | 4,003$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.3 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 59c | 2,750$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.75 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…55a5backed Yes | 39c | 2,488$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 67c | 1,814$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.17 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…ace1backed Yes | 25c | 1,578$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,508$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 77c | 1,326$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.62 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,300$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 13c | 1,239$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.07 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 24c | 1,034$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.51 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727f…bdc6backed Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed Yes | 13c | 991$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 75c | 873.46$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.68 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 797.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 787.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 41c | 772.89$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…321abacked Yes | 66c | 757.72$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 73c | 738.6$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0960backed Yes | 5c | 728.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 80c | 710.52$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.95 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fa…0579backed Yes | 43c | 688.04$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 6c | 679.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 79c | 677.87$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.54 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc674…00b4backed Yes | 43c | 677.6$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a0…8b02backed Yes | 38c | 656$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 68c | 653.55$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.78 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 68c | 582$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 54c | 522.07$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.04 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 14c | 517$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 14c | 464$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f6…6448backed Yes | 40c | 444.38$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…66c1backed Yes | 42c | 419.58$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 60c | 414.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 403.72$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 401.66$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0c…6e84backed Yes | 50c | 401.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed Yes | 42c | 392.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 32c | 381$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.92 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 360.92$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 63c | 356.81$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked Yes | 44c | 341$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…09ffbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 309.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 14c | 308$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74af…81ddbacked Yes | 10c | 301.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…269dbacked Yes | 21c | 283.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 270.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…1c59backed Yes | 6c | 268.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b11…5a66backed Yes | 38c | 263.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…07acbacked Yes | 44c | 262.58$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 68c | 260$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 32c | 260$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 56c | 256$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…2331backed Yes | 22c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 71c | 249.46$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 249.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 13c | 249$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128d…fc4abacked Yes | 40c | 246.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…0345backed Yes | 44c | 234.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…4f2abacked Yes | 36c | 226.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 16c | 225$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed Yes | 45c | 224.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 57cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes | 44c | 222$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 14c | 222$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked No | 56c | 222$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 14c | 221$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…bfcdbacked No | 67c | 219.33$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…f05fbacked Yes | 9c | 211.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6666…ff48backed Yes | 33c | 208.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 56c | 205$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed Yes | 32c | 201$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…5592backed Yes | 35c | 199.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…a5eabacked Yes | 21c | 189.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 16c | 183$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 28c | 179.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4199…6a88backed Yes | 36c | 177$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…a0afbacked Yes | 36c | 177$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…656ebacked Yes | 22c | 174.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…87b9backed Yes | 30c | 174.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ec…f6f0backed Yes | 36c | 166$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c56…5addbacked Yes | 36c | 163$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 37c | 159.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fa…26d0backed Yes | 36c | 159$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…08c6backed Yes | 37c | 157.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e11…4a81backed Yes | 36c | 156$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…d5fbbacked Yes | 36c | 155$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…276ebacked Yes | 36c | 154$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…2100backed Yes | 31c | 153.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a56…d20fbacked Yes | 43c | 152$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…afc3backed Yes | 34c | 145.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…6fb2backed Yes | 47c | 145.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8905backed Yes | 35c | 144.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 144.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c8…7e80backed Yes | 29c | 142.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…9390backed Yes | 36c | 139.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c6…c443backed Yes | 43c | 135$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…981cbacked Yes | 45c | 134$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $630b on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.