TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,620
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,560

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,620 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777f…a1bbbacked No59c4,003$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.35832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed No59c2,750$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.759040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x47ea…55a5backed Yes39c2,488$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.51650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed No67c1,814$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.175048%24 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x916a…ace1backed Yes25c1,578$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,508$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.011867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No77c1,326$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.6225837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes39c1,300$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5074729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed Yes13c1,239$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.072045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes24c1,034$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.51567.1%4 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x727f…bdc6backed Yes42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed Yes13c991$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.831442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No75c873.46$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.6811841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c797.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9821713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c787.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes41c772.89$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc474…321abacked Yes66c757.72$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No73c738.6$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.282055%11 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c22…0960backed Yes5c728.32$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked No80c710.52$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.952646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65fa…0579backed Yes43c688.04$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes6c679.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.96326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed No79c677.87$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.545825.9%15 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc674…00b4backed Yes43c677.6$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55a0…8b02backed Yes38c656$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No68c653.55$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.781471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked No68c582$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.242157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+35.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No54c522.07$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.0412050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes14c517$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.381931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes14c464$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.961241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f6…6448backed Yes40c444.38$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c2…66c1backed Yes42c419.58$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked No60c414.56$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.56875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+133.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No69c403.72$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1915452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No59c401.66$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.614643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0c…6e84backed Yes50c401.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-57.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x294d…b362backed Yes42c392.25$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.84714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-81%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes32c381$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.923336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c360.92$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6920148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No63c356.81$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.968650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x416c…8dcebacked Yes44c341$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.041546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6680…09ffbacked Yes15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c309.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.662522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed Yes14c308$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.122254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74af…81ddbacked Yes10c301.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa791…269dbacked Yes21c283.62$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes27c270.83$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.781,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7099…1c59backed Yes6c268.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b11…5a66backed Yes38c263.35$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e55…07acbacked Yes44c262.58$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.321225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed No68c260$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.21553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked Yes32c260$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.21822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No56c256$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.643540%14 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91c7…2331backed Yes22c250$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No71c249.46$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4619040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes9c249.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.721414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-47.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed Yes13c249$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.371457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x128d…fc4abacked Yes40c246.72$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfda…0345backed Yes44c234.9$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f2…4f2abacked Yes36c226.31$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed Yes16c225$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3314…a8c7backed Yes45c224.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick57cpaid-81.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes44c222$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.68837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed Yes14c222$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.081747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…6beabacked No56c222$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.681540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47eb…8195backed Yes14c221$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.941361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3f2…bfcdbacked No67c219.33$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d13…f05fbacked Yes9c211.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6666…ff48backed Yes33c208.47$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b2…9d96backed No56c205$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed Yes32c201$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.321442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23bf…5592backed Yes35c199.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e6…a5eabacked Yes21c189.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes16c183$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.282556%14 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes28c179.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-50.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4199…6a88backed Yes36c177$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3216…a0afbacked Yes36c177$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc81f…656ebacked Yes22c174.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b67…87b9backed Yes30c174.36$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…f6f0backed Yes36c166$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c56…5addbacked Yes36c163$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes37c159.41$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1217350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fa…26d0backed Yes36c159$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf2…08c6backed Yes37c157.6$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e11…4a81backed Yes36c156$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddbb…d5fbbacked Yes36c155$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c2…276ebacked Yes36c154$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a6e…2100backed Yes31c153.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a56…d20fbacked Yes43c152$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5748…afc3backed Yes34c145.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb278…6fb2backed Yes47c145.51$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a26…8905backed Yes35c144.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes11c144.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4320544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67c8…7e80backed Yes29c142.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes38c140$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7589317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xa28c…9390backed Yes36c139.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1c6…c443backed Yes43c135$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc92d…981cbacked Yes45c134$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.