TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfb97…b54d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
137
Categories scored
29
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: NBA, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 61 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT2748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+50.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,171Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$292.8
Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$359Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$146.45
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$61.56
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$164
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.94
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$13.2
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+1,308.5%+$195.09
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.48
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$184.92
Will Erin Doherty win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+257.1%+$238.32
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Producer of Documentary Film at the 37th PGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.64
Will 'Wuthering Heights' debut week album sales be less than 75k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20.4
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$18.92
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+30%+$32.11
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.66
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.1%+$7.02
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$46.25
Will Yorgos Lanthimos be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.15
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$99.45
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$31.56
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+376.2%+$53.72
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$55.38
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$34.03
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+112.8%+$55.65
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$40.07
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+35.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.84
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$572Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$211.68
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.8
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$711.22
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.6
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$171.6
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.69
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$849Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$253.46
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.73
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$16.5
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.52
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$479Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$235.95
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$237.3
Will "Megapixel" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+222.6%+$278.07
Will "Apple TV" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+163.2%+$343.48
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$396Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$186.24
GPT ads by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$16.1
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.51
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.5%+$24.5
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$12.65
Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+81.8%+$15.3
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.5
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.91
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$451Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$222.09
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+185.7%+$675.35
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$12.24
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$62.5
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$133.12
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$24.05
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$37.44
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$55.46
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$77.74
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+150%+$61.8
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$148.72
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+38.9%+$7.28
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+163.2%+$40.3
All 15 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+84.5%+$481.68
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+73.2%+$336.32
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$549Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$258.24
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.61
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.13
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.89
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+186.5%+$41.01
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.6
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$57.22
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$18.36
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$49.82
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$54.01
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+233.3%+$43.4
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+65.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$492
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.75
Will Starmer say "Reform" 2+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.15
Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+502.4%+$306.91
Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+75.4%+$48.16
Will FA win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$28.52
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?-fkEWbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+25%+$16
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+122.2%+$47.3
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+158.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick34cpaid+305.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+36.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+245.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+156.4%+$110.41
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+334.8%+$313.39
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+238.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bodø/Glimt advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+423.6%+$286.39
Will Olympiacos advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+53.8%+$12.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$263.48
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+316.7%+$399.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$77.76
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+203%+$259.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+354.5%+$204.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Julian Sayin win the Heisman Trophy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+51.1%+$61.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$959Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$420.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Central Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$14.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$133.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$131.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$52.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Fenerbahce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Under 40% by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$159.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$974Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$974.44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.