Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x762cf230915d2eea9eab6e218d1acb01287cc21069259b3a35d6c594610fb3fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 11c | 2,180$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 3c | 2,040$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 6c | 1,654$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 14c | 1,142$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…6b54backed Yes | 21c | 1,100$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…6654backed Yes | 72c | 800$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 13c | 748.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 71c | 723.04$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 29c | 567.29$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.58 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…41b5backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 46c | 364.27$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.16 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 22c | 250$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 10c | 221.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 51c | 214$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 53c | 211.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 51c | 177$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 49c | 177$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed No | 66c | 172.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 38c | 172.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…d68ebacked No | 49c | 157$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 51c | 154$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 55c | 148.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 49c | 146$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 36c | 142.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…cc21backed Yes | 60c | 114.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes | 73c | 109$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…6ae5backed No | 49c | 101.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 61c | 100.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked No | 49c | 94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 27c | 85.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef3e…eff5backed Yes | 48c | 79.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 71.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 49c | 70.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 36c | 67.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes | 51c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 49c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 61.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 53c | 60.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 70c | 59.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 52c | 44.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…c87abacked Yes | 71c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 34c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c85…62e4backed Yes | 73c | 27.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…daa7backed No | 43c | 24.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a97…3753backed Yes | 48c | 20.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 54c | 20.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…68c6backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 60c | 17.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.