TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe732…d68e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: College Football, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.15
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$18.92
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$64.68
GPT ads by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$114.31
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$15.2
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.6
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+25%+$44.4
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+81.8%+$71.1
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.5
Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$17.82
Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+78.6%+$69.52
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.25
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$82.08
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+40.8%+$4.64
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$63.25
Will Yorgos Lanthimos be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$27.96
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+316.7%+$72.2
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$90.65
Will Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+56.3%+$39.96
Will "Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+40.8%+$14.21
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.84
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.48
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.65
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.88
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+420.8%+$58.18
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$35.72
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$74.88
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$17.95
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$13.11
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.88
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27.65
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+284.6%+$66.6
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+108.3%+$23.92
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$18.2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$59.4
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$46.74
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$59.29
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$74.4
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+35.3%+$34.73
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$25.2
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.5
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51.48
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+104.1%+$80.07
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+49.6%+$48.44
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+58.7%+$7.77
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11.68
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11.22
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tulane make the College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+194.1%+$137.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+121.7%+$121.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+78.6%+$26.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+66.7%+$8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.