Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98d9142164ad6512a4c70eb17abc9f4d6d20f1c5afdab302805048ac75364a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda42…dc4fbacked No | 0c | 57,430$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…5c11backed No | 16c | 14,792$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5232…0ec5backed No | 2c | 8,560$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 56c | 7,898$4,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,425.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 64c | 6,118$3,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,212.06 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 43c | 5,858$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,357.24 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked No | 4c | 4,366$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 3,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…5bd9backed No | 20c | 3,099$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 11c | 2,726$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 1c | 2,427$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 44c | 2,369$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.79 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 2,106$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…1f5bbacked No | 1c | 2,103$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…473cbacked No | 4c | 1,903$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 1,852$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 3c | 1,691$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 43c | 1,650$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.34 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,649$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.47 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 59c | 1,392$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.01 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 57c | 1,281$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 8c | 1,174$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,166$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.91 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,136$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 1c | 1,120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 73c | 1,114$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0d…e9e0backed No | 74c | 1,078$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 2c | 924.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 915.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 44c | 881.35$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.65 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 70c | 812.34$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.2 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 42c | 800$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 9c | 777.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 14c | 765.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 736.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 25c | 718.68$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.54 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 14c | 716.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 51c | 662.62$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.39 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 617.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 19c | 570.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…a3fabacked Yes | 73c | 567.74$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed No | 19c | 549.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4a…fff2backed No | 65c | 513.11$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 58cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…d9d1backed No | 48c | 495.91$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 19c | 488$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 32c | 466.71$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…ee32backed Yes | 45c | 441.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 18c | 415$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 54c | 407.35$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…3a93backed No | 67c | 376$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 61c | 372.59$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.4 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 60c | 364.96$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.88 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 39c | 343.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 61c | 327$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 321.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.91 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed No | 55c | 309.01$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 52c | 309$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked No | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 52c | 286$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dd…bc48backed No | 54c | 279.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 51c | 275.2$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.63 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0683…a22abacked Yes | 73c | 272.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…5f61backed No | 7c | 272.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51d…373bbacked No | 22c | 272.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 52c | 272$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 76c | 268$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.29 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 33c | 266$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 24c | 253.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…bd49backed No | 5c | 241.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed No | 19c | 236$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 233.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 62c | 232.54$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.86 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 49c | 231$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.81 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…7fc6backed Yes | 48c | 229$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked Yes | 48c | 218$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed No | 58c | 217$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked Yes | 43c | 207$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked Yes | 48c | 206$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…a54dbacked No | 29c | 202$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed Yes | 53c | 199.91$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed Yes | 56c | 198.54$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed No | 52c | 194$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Yes | 44c | 191.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 69c | 189$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 53c | 187.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 48c | 184$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 19c | 177.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 44c | 176$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked Yes | 44c | 169$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 53c | 168.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes | 48c | 166$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…85b7backed No | 64c | 163$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 56c | 163$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 35c | 161.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.03 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?this page
- Will Israel strike 0 countries in December 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 3 or more countries in December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.