TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$266,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$266,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda42…dc4fbacked No0c57,430$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.43825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4122…5c11backed No16c14,792$2,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5232…0ec5backed No2c8,560$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked No56c7,898$4,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,425.07922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.37per pick60cpaid-70.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes64c6,118$3,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,212.0635355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes43c5,858$2,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,357.2438237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9339…a56fbacked No4c4,366$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.31540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c3,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.264769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcc…5bd9backed No20c3,099$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No11c2,726$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.867439.2%29 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.20per pick19cpaid+102%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No1c2,427$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.788530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes44c2,369$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.7936750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No3c2,106$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.672384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a9d…1f5bbacked No1c2,103$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…473cbacked No4c1,903$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No1c1,852$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked No3c1,691$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No43c1,650$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.347850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes44c1,649$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.475022%11 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes59c1,392$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.0115324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No57c1,281$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7368056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No8c1,174$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.255313.2%7 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes48c1,166$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.9111851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes75c1,136$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.041662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No1c1,120$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7220438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Yes73c1,114$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.911844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+44.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c0d…e9e0backed No74c1,078$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No2c924.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7111418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c915.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.117135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes44c881.35$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.6542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed No70c812.34$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.214335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked Yes42c800$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4666240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed No9c777.16$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6129129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No14c765.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2448923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c736.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.11,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No25c718.68$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.547341.1%30 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No14c716.32$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6911424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes51c662.62$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.3940939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No6c617.35$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.18721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No19c570.23$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1616…a3fabacked Yes73c567.74$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.29785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+37.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed No19c549.97$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4921926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a4a…fff2backed No65c513.11$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.29812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.6wins-0.45per pick58cpaid-82.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1022…d9d1backed No48c495.91$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.16944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No19c488$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.721838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No32c466.71$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.617740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ea…ee32backed Yes45c441.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.3560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+89.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No18c415$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.981976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No54c407.35$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.910165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6278…3a93backed No67c376$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes61c372.59$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.418151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed Yes60c364.96$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.884542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed Yes39c343.1$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.291650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed No61c327$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.11163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+56.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes11c321.25$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.913151.6%16 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.38per pick14cpaid+350.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x7be3…afa3backed No55c309.01$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed No52c309$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.681338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked No46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1386549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2011566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+37.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes46c299.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16247334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes15c299.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.993748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked No52c286$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.721533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7dd…bc48backed No54c279.06$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes51c275.2$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6313342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0683…a22abacked Yes73c272.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c2…5f61backed No7c272.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51d…373bbacked No22c272.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602030%6 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed No52c272$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.441947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed No76c268$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.291827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes33c266$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.222147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No24c253.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.27944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1757…bd49backed No5c241.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed No19c236$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.841421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No47c233.33$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.415646.4%26 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed No62c232.54$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8623839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964c…44acbacked Yes49c231$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.811957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf40f…7fc6backed Yes48c229$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b0e…282abacked Yes48c218$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.361464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9be1…cb56backed No58c217$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.86728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1587…901abacked Yes43c207$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f58…e29abacked Yes48c206$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+78.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x787a…a54dbacked No29c202$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.84850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1246549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8809…6e34backed Yes53c199.91$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.911936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+60.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed Yes56c198.54$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.433839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes52c195$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.3531344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed No52c194$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.88922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd24e…f8e1backed Yes44c191.69$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.92560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+92.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed No69c189$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.411136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No53c187.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes48c184$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.681850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes19c177.65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.92254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes44c176$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.561060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4348…fa2abacked Yes44c169$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.64650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd86…1f67backed Yes53c168.93$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.93742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.321450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed No64c163$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed No56c163$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.281850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes35c161.06$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0331649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes48c160$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.