TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb79f…d749

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
128
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Movies, grading 50 out of 100 (0.00 per pick) — its least-bad Category, not a recommendation. Every Category this wallet trades grades at or below 50, which is what “no edge at all” looks like.

Best Category Movies at 50 out of 100; worst Middle East at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 66 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$19.96
US forces enter Iran by March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$12.77
Khamenei seen in public by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.53
Khamenei seen in public by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.5
Khamenei seen in public by March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.72
Khamenei seen in public by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.26
Khamenei seen in public by March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.12
Khamenei seen in public by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31.75
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$14.68
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$11.94
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$10.67
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$11.07
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13.54
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.65
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.3
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.97
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$18.35
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$16.82
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11.58
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20.89
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.08
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.97
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.56
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.37
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$13.15
Showing 25 of 66 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13.91
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$18.95
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.8
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.66
Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$11.21
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$13.61
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.14
Will Russia capture Zarichne by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$12.63
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$12.97
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$12.69
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.68
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.37
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$15.45
Will Russia enter Hryshyne by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$13.29
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20.39
Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$11.24
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13.74
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$17.28
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$14.83
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$12.44
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12.7
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$10.27
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12.53
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$13.53
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$14.89
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$15.4
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$15.23
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$11.47
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$13.7
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$12.94
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10.31
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$13.26
All 16 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$11.27
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$11.36
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$10.84
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$12.81
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$27.47
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12.72
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.82
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$29.55
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.87
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$13.44
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$15.81
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.62
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.41
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.31
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.09
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.4
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.06
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 66°F or higher on March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.02
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$10.77
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.36
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.07
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.