Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61debf51157cc2375fc0c85e1e74ac23bf74da219983666d802e7e17ae09e10c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b6d…dfa5backed No | 0c | 47,149$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…9f43backed No | 0c | 25,817$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked No | 0c | 25,475$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 0c | 8,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…d060backed No | 3c | 3,607$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 0c | 3,144$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 6c | 2,185$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,704$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed No | 1c | 1,404$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…5899backed No | 4c | 1,370$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac19…1ae5backed No | 5c | 640.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 9c | 503.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 3c | 495$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 39c | 450.08$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked No | 14c | 440$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 297$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…37d6backed Yes | 66c | 280$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +248.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 9c | 168.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 160.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 12c | 143.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 27c | 107.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 71c | 105.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 15c | 86.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed No | 36c | 50.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 68c | 46.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…5ed7backed Yes | 66c | 45.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d3…df67backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 40.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0f…8db7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 65c | 38.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5389…42d5backed No | 42c | 32.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…bb90backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a1…4be6backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb015…734bbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…a7b9backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 59c | 17.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b28…54d7backed Yes | 70c | 16.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…c7c1backed Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.