TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeaea…673c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Olympics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Olympics at 52 out of 100; worst Weather at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT2429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+99.1%+$99.06
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$39.59
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$85.44
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$198.22
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$83.92
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+174.3%+$174.27
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+100%+$80
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+188.9%+$188.51
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$21.1
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$54.99
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+31.3%+$124.39
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$14.89
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+45.8%+$103.7
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
All 24 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-54.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+111.9%+$30.21
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.78
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.57
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+328.1%+$197.13
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$31.48
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$100.49
All 14 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$116.82
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)backed Crystal Palace FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.16
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+63.9%+$63.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-05-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$154
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.