Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a76bf451cb9f94799febbe4863ac75efc43feb52874c63b6f0e5e904aaf00a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,817$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…d680backed Yes | 9c | 1,949$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82a…e7c2backed No | 80c | 1,640$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 6c | 1,522$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 1,365$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,185$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 20c | 866.62$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.83 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 21c | 850.24$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.49 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc2…5a6bbacked No | 80c | 820$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…96efbacked No | 80c | 820$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9989…2008backed No | 80c | 820$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e61ebacked Yes | 26c | 785.03$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 79c | 757.36$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 16c | 720.07$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 12c | 615.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked No | 80c | 595.03$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 27c | 528.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.58 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 20c | 510$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…71b7backed Yes | 21c | 507.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd346…4c48backed Yes | 4c | 496.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…f824backed Yes | 44c | 465.85$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 8c | 450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 75c | 402.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf401…5cacbacked Yes | 23c | 299.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 79c | 278.68$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 7c | 267.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 20c | 245.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 74c | 233.37$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4424…4cc6backed Yes | 18c | 215.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 21c | 212.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 190.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 188.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 6c | 174$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked No | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 14c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed No | 77c | 155.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed No | 76c | 131.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 129.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe185…ce4bbacked Yes | 37c | 112.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 10c | 103.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…9c48backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…d43fbacked Yes | 32c | 94.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed Yes | 20c | 85.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 24c | 82.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…818abacked Yes | 30c | 73.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…64e3backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed No | 74c | 60.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 19c | 53.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…ec32backed No | 77c | 52.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…4a5fbacked No | 79c | 45.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 41.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 57c | 34.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…d1c4backed No | 80c | 27.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3181…737abacked No | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…ef57backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 16.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b3…46e2backed No | 75c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…6366backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?this page
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.