TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7e5f…95e2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
168
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Stocks, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 55 out of 100; worst AI at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT2744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.52
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.34
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+316.7%+$79.5
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+155.1%+$262.01
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+271.1%+$495.86
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.4%+$188.13
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+277.5%+$203.53
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$217.14
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+96.1%+$110.6
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$40.13
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+27.7%+$24.38
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$22.23
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$384.57
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$35.68
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+27.8%+$51.28
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+113%+$100.79
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$545Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$544.69
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$97.99
US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$152
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$161.77
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$25.97
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+257.1%+$36
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+35.1%+$13
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.99
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.93
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.33
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$86.53
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$15.58
Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$51.16
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,849Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$2,849.07
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+185.7%+$100.33
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+318.7%+$1,266.13
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 190 and 219 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$13.77
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 220 and 249 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+35.8%+$55.37
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 295 and 309 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$27.91
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 310 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$179.35
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10.25
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+208.4%+$472.84
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$70
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.6
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.6
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$22.28
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+178.6%+$330.88
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$39.33
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$4,427Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$4,426.94
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$88.21
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$61.91
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17.42
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$464Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+79.5%+$368.81
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$43
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+26.6%+$6.93
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$27.26
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$42.73
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 18? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$57
All 15 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+614.3%+$103.47
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$25.15
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25.49
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$35.12
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$14.93
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+33.2%+$9.08
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+94.8%+$128.09
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$180.92
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$60.03
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$192
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$128
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$56
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$13.34
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$66.9
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.8
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$159
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.94
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.12
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$186
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$124
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$189
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.98
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$123
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$829Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$829.12
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick30cpaid-89.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.75 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.97
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.48
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$49.85
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.88
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.74
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.94
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.63
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,246Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+30.4%+$378.8
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$302.09
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$19.33
GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$13.78
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$112
All 12 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+170.3%+$25.2
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+32.4%+$67.41
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$33.69
Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15.44
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$306.49
Over $18M committed to the Space public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+150%+$15
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,064Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$1,064
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$411.6
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+36.2%+$53.11
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$173.7
All 11 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+57.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$219
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$204.69
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,525Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+36.2%+$1,274.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+33.3%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 100 Thieves qualify to a S-tier tournament by June 1 ? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$17.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.