Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34196ff0454af39ba186fbf8f609648179ccbbf6f7a5133f87764362f66ef44f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $233,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 351 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd97…776cbacked Yes | 51c | 9,768$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 7,950$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 59c | 6,205$3,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,662.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed Yes | 41c | 5,743$2,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.96 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 55c | 5,293$2,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.4 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed No | 48c | 5,148$2,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,679.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…8f06backed Yes | 21c | 4,564$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 29c | 4,032$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,875.37 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed No | 66c | 3,012$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.55 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,521$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 21c | 2,288$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.44 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,194$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 50c | 2,019$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.3 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…4ca9backed No | 48c | 2,003$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a70…5333backed Yes | 62c | 1,987$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +192.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…c109backed No | 31c | 1,800$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 53c | 1,787$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.88 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…d368backed No | 60c | 1,706$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf9…6852backed Yes | 1c | 1,609$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 59c | 1,600$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -8.3wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.99 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.96 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 70c | 1,444$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.11 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,359$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Yes | 77c | 1,287$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…9788backed Yes | 73c | 1,234$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,207$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 76c | 1,196$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.44 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 66c | 1,180$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.88 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 1,110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 58c | 1,100$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.01 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 34c | 1,087$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.72 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 47c | 1,032$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.46 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 38c | 1,010$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.57 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +58%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…7664backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…9480backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 999.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.42 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -12.7wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 962.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 899$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 819.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 814.54$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.26 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 58c | 811.14$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.11 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 75c | 779.45$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.12 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 47c | 758.12$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.12 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 741.53$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.27 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed No | 62c | 741.04$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 39c | 740.25$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.29 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…43cebacked Yes | 11c | 727.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 716.38$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.19 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…8520backed No | 57c | 713.51$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 698.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 58c | 675.91$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.67 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -16.0wins | -0.39per pick | 63cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 23-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 56c | 671.05$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.95 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 35c | 628.64$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.36 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Yes | 4c | 615.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 57c | 594.27$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.33 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 34c | 574.24$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 562.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 52c | 552.89$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.6 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 78c | 520.88$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.94 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…204abacked No | 54c | 520.72$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Yes | 52c | 518.69$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1347…a287backed No | 55c | 499.99$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 36c | 499.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 492.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…4bbebacked No | 50c | 490.01$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked No | 57c | 488.5$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.94 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 52c | 481$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.89 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 33c | 478.52$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.09 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 54c | 460.75$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.88 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked No | 31c | 460$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.22 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 47c | 439.67$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +167.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…a032backed Yes | 68c | 436.03$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…c72cbacked No | 33c | 430.3$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked No | 61c | 428.55$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.13 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed No | 25c | 406.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.23 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…a400backed Yes | 23c | 400.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 77c | 400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…5b36backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 43c | 379.61$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.53 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 65c | 379.04$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.52 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6322…7ca2backed Yes | 7c | 370.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…f2e3backed No | 51c | 369.35$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked No | 64c | 364.34$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.52 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 58c | 361.82$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.49 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 8c | 360.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…aafebacked No | 32c | 360.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…20c1backed No | 56c | 354.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 59c | 339.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb3…bf2ebacked No | 29c | 335.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +243.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6232…f92abacked No | 57c | 334.2$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 76c | 325$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…d199backed No | 63c | 318.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…1e59backed Yes | 14c | 313.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?this page
- US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.