TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf5d1…67cc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
153
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Commodities at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT3360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$78
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$66.46
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$904Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$904
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,114Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$505.6
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$713Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$713.46
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$882Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$882.03
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$54
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$140
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$852Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$348
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$52
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,321Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+92.9%+$2,156.65
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$368.01
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$292
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13,227Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+57.6%+$7,615.87
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$692Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+59%+$408.7
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+38.5%+$81.85
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$960Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$960.09
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,564Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,563.94
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+83.1%+$201
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$658Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+68.5%+$450.79
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$448
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+100%+$15
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+43.2%+$36.2
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$403.94
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT3342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.75
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.17
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$458Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$253.49
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$103.36
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.51
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$28.97
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.58
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.04
Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$12.07
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$13.42
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$300.93
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$46.1
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,182Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+50.8%+$600.11
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+146.4%+$323.85
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$602Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$601.83
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+37.9%+$55
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$118.85
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$12.47
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+32.3%+$73.3
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$87.2
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+99.7%+$397.96
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST1838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+188.5%+$98
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+461.8%+$205.5
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in October 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$16.42
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$285.64
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$142.21
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$57.98
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$447Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$447.09
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on September 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+59.2%+$44.6
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.8
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on September 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+105.5%+$30.8
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$31.5
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on September 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+203%+$33.5
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.6
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+368%+$276.52
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on September 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on September 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
All 18 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+34.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$102
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$158.45
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,079Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,078.58
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+175.9%+$398.34
Trump out as President by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.8
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+35.1%+$52
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$72.3
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+381.7%+$134.7
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+66.6%+$103.95
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+25.7%+$28.59
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$787Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+139.9%+$1,101.88
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$19.47
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$9.68
Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.56
Trump deploys National Guard to a blue city by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.4
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+200.7%+$67.28
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 26, 2025, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.2
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+674.6%+$95.8
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+150%+$30
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.28
Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.3
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.5
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.77
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+138.8%+$111.19
Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT+249.8%+$306.94
Will Elon tweet 410–424 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.84
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.85
Will Elon tweet less than 215 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.86
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+50.4%+$50.25
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-81.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Sep 11, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+37.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 25, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+175.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$68
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford backed Crawford · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$23.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$17.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.