TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x97d3…3f3c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
180
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Chess, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Chess at 58 out of 100; worst Serie A at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT5756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$278.6
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$745Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$745.39
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$451Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$126.59
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$815Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$208.9
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+113.6%+$2,533.96
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,173Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$390.59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+48.2%+$964.48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,475Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+131.6%+$1,941.49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,689Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+133.6%+$2,257.68
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.46
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$104
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$6,651Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$2,101.65
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,204Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+60.5%+$1,937.94
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+62.9%+$217.75
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,339Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,338.87
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$84.1
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.4
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,781Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$1,274.88
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11,138Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$3,084.41
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$5,940Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,940.04
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$119
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$43.9
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,071Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,071.18
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$922Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+69.5%+$640.74
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT3863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+44.3%+$57.24
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$944Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+125.6%+$1,185.74
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,011Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$477.54
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.94
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$450.04
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$481Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+56.4%+$271.35
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.54
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,159Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$416.07
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,029Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,029.12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$531Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$530.58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+1,251.4%+$1,347.31
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.57
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+116%+$52.8
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$58
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$670Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.2%+$256.18
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$524Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26%+$136.15
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$586Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+67.5%+$395.41
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$568Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+82.9%+$470.42
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$593Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.8%+$194.64
Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+127.3%+$61
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$39.23
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+53.5%+$122
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+146.1%+$876.78
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT3070%21 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Chess — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+91.9%+$256.14
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.27
Will Magnus Carlsen qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+42.9%+$90
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+32.4%+$11.23
FIDE World Cup 2025 Quarterfinals - Yi vs Erigaisi (Advances)backed Erigaisi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$37.8
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Samuel Sevian vs Lorenzo Lodici (Advances)backed Sevian · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+54.8%+$42.5
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Yangyi Yu vs Javokhir Sindarov (Advances)backed Yu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$85.25
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Awonder Liang vs Gabriel Sargissian (Advances)backed Liang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$87.51
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Frederik Svane vs Sargsyan Shant (Advances)backed Shant · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$65.89
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa vs Daniil Dubov (Advances)backed Praggnanandhaa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Peter Leko vs Arjun Erigaisi (Advances)backed Erigaisi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+31.6%+$5.2
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Venkatesh Pranav vs Nodirbek Yakubboev (Advances)backed Pranav · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$23.31
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Alexey Sarana vs Jose Eduardo Martinez Alcantara (Advances)backed Alcantara · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+81.8%+$9
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Yu Yangyi vs S.L. Narayanan (Advances)backed Yangyi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+66.7%+$16
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Van Nguyen Thai Dai vs Nodirbek Yakubboev (Advances)backed Yakubboev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+212.5%+$54.4
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus vs Richard Rapport (Advances)backed Rapport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+66.7%+$20
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Nikolas Theodorou vs Javokhir Sindarov (Advances)backed Sindarov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+132.6%+$39.9
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Ivan Saric vs Parham Maghsoodloo (Advances)backed Maghsoodloo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+194.1%+$49.5
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Titas Stremavicius vs Pranav Venkatesh (Advances)backed Venkatesh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+63.9%+$15.6
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+74.2%+$25.57
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+181.3%+$58
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Gukesh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST+53%+$90.03
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$40
Will Game 13 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST+30.9%+$6.17
Will Ding Liren win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST-100%-$55
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST1952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chris Paul not sign with or be traded to a new team?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+25%+$6
Will LeBron James join a new team this offseason?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.34
Will Lebron announce final season Tuesday? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+46.4%+$231.21
Will Lebron announce marketing stunt Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.84
Will Kevin Durant not be traded?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+25%+$4
Will Stephen Curry Return This Series?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+37.1%+$51.4
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+148.6%+$89.13
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+37.6%+$30.11
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Terry Rozier suspended before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+28.2%+$23.13
Will Luka Doncic play against the Pacers on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+82%+$38.66
Will another NBA All Star get traded before the deadline?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Kevin Durant get traded?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+30.9%+$41.07
Will Jimmy Butler stay with the Miami Heat?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+92.4%+$73.91
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$15.9
Will Jimmy Butler get traded?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$648Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$647.69
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$130
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$457
Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+30.7%+$23.3
Will Trump release more Epstein files in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$16.39
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$466Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.9%+$134.5
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.05
US military action against Iran by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+1,101.2%+$275.03
Will Trump raise or lower tariffs on China first?backed Lower · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT+107.8%+$151.81
Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+47.8%+$65.01
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?backed Zelenskyy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+57.1%+$68.5
Will Trump impose tariffs on China before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Trump say "TikTok" during the announcement?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+32.2%+$9.65
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+28.8%+$12.1
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+63.1%+$18.93
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2backed Usyk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will Usyk beat Fury?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+85.2%+$85.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Sep 20, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia win Intervision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$717Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$716.79
Will Kazakhstan win Intervision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,016Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,016
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.