NBA · resolved market
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddf49ac45f081424c0850388a6a312f03d67a2edd2341c08f4b6bbbea3b05bd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 15c | 10,315$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,803.28 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 30c | 1,019$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.95 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 11c | 830.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 18c | 819.97$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.79 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked No | 75c | 714.86$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 5c | 329.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.98 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 17c | 318.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 5c | 315.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.19 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 294$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.37 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 12c | 259.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.49 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 75c | 250$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…fd3abacked Yes | 11c | 228.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.24 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 17c | 211.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.85 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7722…ee4bbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea0…efecbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 169.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.73 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d8…f1d9backed Yes | 64c | 167.3$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…5f69backed Yes | 19c | 149.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Yes | 10c | 147$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0c…6565backed Yes | 37c | 134.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 12c | 108.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 22c | 68.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…596ebacked Yes | 32c | 46.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 78c | 41.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…aecabacked Yes | 78c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 80c | 19.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors?this page
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Brooklyn Nets?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Dallas Mavericks?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Houston Rockets?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Lakers?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Memphis Grizzlies?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Orlando Magic?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Phoenix Suns?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler stay with the Miami Heat?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.