TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Jimmy Butler stay with the Miami Heat?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,250
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,250 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes41c5,100$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08759646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf034…ef3dbacked Yes42c2,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe4…10dfbacked Yes42c2,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes42c2,217$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.582050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No60c2,003$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.1718246.7%85 W · 97 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes75c2,001$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes27c1,744$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.7910244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed No76c1,653$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.02156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-91.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6be…3456backed No58c1,260$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x724c…fc63backed No58c1,250$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf2a…adf7backed No58c1,250$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49d…7a8cbacked No58c1,240$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf282…2d53backed No52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4862…3421backed Yes48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ef…977abacked Yes48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d20…7e06backed No47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b2f…37b3backed Yes53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e7…a111backed Yes53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d7…7afdbacked No47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac7…3f92backed No52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb7…7398backed Yes45c980$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7028…eaaabacked No55c980$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaed…5fadbacked No55c980$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x083a…ed79backed Yes45c980$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No55c969.61$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.025244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6793…8de3backed Yes55c910$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9e…a27fbacked No45c910$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe549…b17abacked Yes55c910$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa526…168cbacked No45c910$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff4…f082backed Yes41c900$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53d9…d2d9backed No59c900$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76ec…ae2bbacked No59c900$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4590…831dbacked Yes41c900$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaef…2cabbacked No56c890$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9890…4f01backed Yes44c890$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67a5…edd0backed Yes44c890$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcabd…c78cbacked No56c890$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes61c657.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40038942.9%167 W · 222 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23b1…8e10backed No70c590$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.88937.1%33 W · 56 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1156…0febbacked No37c580.09$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4999…5fcebacked Yes49c547.44$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.981827.8%5 W · 13 L-5.6wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-61%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe967…5a95backed Yes37c509.81$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.691145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes50c499.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No56c494$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.241353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+35.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x634a…02cfbacked Yes63c469.99$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x240e…e8aabacked Yes63c452.77$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed No36c422.1$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.145139.2%20 W · 31 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+71.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No76c358.61$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.551,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6994%4 W · 95 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9e…7bd8backed Yes57c295.28$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.563135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d46…5657backed No51c294.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.312152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed No17c291.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick15cpaid+410.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed No61c259.81$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed No50c226$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.786238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed No57c221.36$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.195628.6%16 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+104.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc13f…c93bbacked Yes23c219.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5063445.1%286 W · 348 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No66c203.66$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3318536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43e4…fd34backed Yes24c200.32$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.460%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0e8…2688backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.45932.2%19 W · 40 L-9.7wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-41.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes30c160.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7734246.8%160 W · 182 L+18.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked No52c153.91$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.911952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c153.1$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5713240.2%53 W · 79 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes49c150.39$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.376113.1%8 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c6…bbc3backed Yes17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed No55c110$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.65549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+75%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3960%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0479…f2ddbacked Yes29c97.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.87650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes29c93.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2623438.9%91 W · 143 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes60c88.76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.261,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f1…1ebdbacked Yes41c85.37$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353658.3%21 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d5…517dbacked No35c75.69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed Yes48c74.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4579…112ebacked No50c71.26$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.63580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+44.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed Yes42c69.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.391330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes75c67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf943…a83abacked No55c66.27$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.821250%6 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a1f…79a3backed Yes73c64.58$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Yes34c59.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030648.7%149 W · 157 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0da1…cababacked No51c58.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa061…6476backed No35c58.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1535…bf37backed Yes37c52.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.46450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes33c50.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.58539.4%5 W · 48 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick12cpaid+11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+54.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1726048.1%125 W · 135 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No37c47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5185347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…dde8backed No61c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.55825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+45.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed No35c44.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.391520%3 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f1…8c9cbacked Yes73c42.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x072c…78babacked Yes50c35.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e6…12fbbacked Yes50c35.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+53.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…412abacked Yes63c34.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c37…61febacked No39c33.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…554cbacked No63c30.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe51d…da96backed Yes75c30.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e58…99b8backed No51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.411471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No67c28.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x876a…ecb4backed Yes63c24.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.15425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5d0…ad0fbacked Yes69c21.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…d83bbacked No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.