TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Phoenix Suns?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,371
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,355

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,371 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes40c3,112$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.76425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa128…d695backed Yes15c1,405$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No68c1,035$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.151060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b0…b122backed Yes38c769.04$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7ccabacked Yes43c703.25$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015149%74 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e36…9b9fbacked Yes7c505$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3716242%68 W · 94 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2911…fed6backed No71c485.74$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1432853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes11c449.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.456025%15 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed Yes20c412.28$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.555139.2%20 W · 31 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+71.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Yes12c411.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504141.5%17 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes19c365.57$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.726750.7%34 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes10c317$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.56539.4%5 W · 48 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick12cpaid+11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2143…c781backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes11c269.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.62586.9%4 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes18c268.65$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.815230.8%16 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes10c258.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.086113.1%8 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes11c230$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+45.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No78c204.02$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3218536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes13c189.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.191353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+35.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c54…cc1ebacked No69c167.86$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.132050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes12c162.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e4…fd34backed Yes20c158.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2660%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3b0…867ebacked Yes32c155.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-78%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No60c138.58$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No78c137.89$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.79922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8a5…b918backed Yes18c133.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes8c123.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12994%4 W · 95 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Yes51c117.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607623.7%18 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e8…2688backed Yes51c91.18$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.415932.2%19 W · 40 L-9.7wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-41.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdc08…6bd3backed Yes35c85.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed No78c63.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+75%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.182441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08fa…a865backed Yes20c50.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102347.8%11 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+90.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3784…643dbacked Yes24c49.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9580%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5179…2bebbacked Yes35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked Yes40c42.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.95952.5%31 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.684240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-48.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cf0…fd3abacked Yes70c35.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255127.5%14 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05fd…7976backed Yes36c34.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+83.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd876…25e1backed Yes54c33.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb007…e0fdbacked No60c29.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c7…9745backed No64c26.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.63425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3838…c0a5backed No64c22.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.97560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4c…846cbacked Yes72c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c20.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3126048.1%125 W · 135 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbfe…7c45backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.94366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…8ef1backed No66c19.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.79540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe68…5701backed Yes69c19.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde08…4658backed No80c12.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.