NBA · resolved market
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Phoenix Suns?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c4131f70353c045bb80fae077cda0d0435b8935a4a2edeba85543f7c719480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 40c | 3,112$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…d695backed Yes | 15c | 1,405$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 68c | 1,035$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…b122backed Yes | 38c | 769.04$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Yes | 43c | 703.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…9b9fbacked Yes | 7c | 505$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…fed6backed No | 71c | 485.74$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 11c | 449.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 20c | 412.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yes | 12c | 411.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 19c | 365.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 10c | 317$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2143…c781backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 11c | 269.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 58 | 6.9%4 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 268.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 258.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 11c | 230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 204.02$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 13c | 189.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 69c | 167.86$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 12c | 162.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e4…fd34backed Yes | 20c | 158.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b0…867ebacked Yes | 32c | 155.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -78%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 60c | 138.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 78c | 137.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…b918backed Yes | 18c | 133.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 8c | 123.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Yes | 51c | 117.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e8…2688backed Yes | 51c | 91.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -9.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc08…6bd3backed Yes | 35c | 85.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 78c | 63.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…a865backed Yes | 20c | 50.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…643dbacked Yes | 24c | 49.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2bebbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked Yes | 40c | 42.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…fd3abacked Yes | 70c | 35.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…7976backed Yes | 36c | 34.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…25e1backed Yes | 54c | 33.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb007…e0fdbacked No | 60c | 29.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…9745backed No | 64c | 26.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…c0a5backed No | 64c | 22.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4c…846cbacked Yes | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfe…7c45backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…8ef1backed No | 66c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe68…5701backed Yes | 69c | 19.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…4658backed No | 80c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Phoenix Suns?this page
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Brooklyn Nets?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Dallas Mavericks?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors?Yes won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Houston Rockets?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Lakers?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Memphis Grizzlies?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Orlando Magic?No won
- Will Jimmy Butler stay with the Miami Heat?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.