TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x08fa…a865

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2347.8%11 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+90.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$3,901Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+1,306.3%+$50,957.46
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$4,994Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,994.29
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$385.17
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Mavericksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,667Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+37%+$1,356.27
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$246
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$230.33
Will Jaylen Wells win NBA Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT+1,023.6%+$511.8
Will Alexandre Sarr win NBA Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$147
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Bulls vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+46.9%+$77.78
Pistons vs. Heatbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$88.85
Rockets vs. Magicbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$35.49
Knicks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.68
Spurs vs. Grizzliesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+185.7%+$117
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Phoenix Suns?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Pacers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST+177.8%+$31.86
Celtics vs. Cavaliersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST+47.1%+$47.06
76ers vs. Kingsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Pelicans vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST+25%+$50
All 23 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$48.9
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
Arsenal wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$490
Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$120.43
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$146
Will Fulham win on 2025-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST+212.5%+$312.38
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$146
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$140.83
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+170.3%+$265.62
Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+150%+$100.5
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2024, EST+44.9%+$13.48
All 13 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+121%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-01-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+56.3%+$281.25
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+185.7%+$501.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lille win on 2025-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Inter Milan beat Monaco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+66.7%+$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 18, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Du Plessis vs. Adesanyabacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT+96.4%+$245.94
Gamrot vs. Hookerbacked Gamrot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$613Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$613.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.09
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+127.3%+$84
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Senators vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+85.2%+$170.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+25%+$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$404
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$204
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.