TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$816,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$923,972

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $816,938 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60b2…3ccebacked No5c17,210$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.74035%14 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes78c12,072$9,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,676.581540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24b2…74f3backed Yes50c8,897$4,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,453.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No2c8,647$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.694517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-75.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed No5c7,863$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.1426640.2%107 W · 159 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes77c7,492$5,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.77051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes41c6,175$2,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,618.5512245.1%55 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Yes73c5,788$4,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.7620248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c5,686$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.972130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed No2c5,248$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8213133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d4a…2215backed No2c5,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.319838.9%77 W · 121 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151550%0 W · 155 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed No9c5,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4603852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked No8c4,695$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.5114161%86 W · 55 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c4,683$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.811,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No20c3,775$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.7987049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c3,758$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.14984.1%4 W · 94 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes46c3,707$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.722750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No48c3,534$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.76026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8c…c435backed No4c3,329$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed No39c3,305$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.891,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No4c2,659$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.95795.1%4 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e6…0201backed No2c2,303$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Yes50c2,157$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.3272241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd298…42aebacked Yes19c2,053$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3575…9a1cbacked No1c1,983$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes51c1,956$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.621216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6938…e766backed Yes50c1,859$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.95825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b6d…2698backed No4c1,777$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f77…9d8ebacked No8c1,680$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5580%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fef…cdcbbacked Yes28c1,626$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.212828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes72c1,606$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.261533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No69c1,600$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.6910244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2534…41c9backed Yes22c1,600$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.984520%9 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No24c1,547$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.38387.9%3 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No2c1,521$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.355313.2%7 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No7c1,447$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0723237.1%86 W · 146 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e55…2b2abacked No6c1,432$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f45…b568backed No5c1,400$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No7c1,398$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.998647.7%41 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d34…17e8backed No2c1,390$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.991414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+94%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2d…8f7bbacked No5c1,348$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651540%6 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-6.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc654…e657backed Yes76c1,310$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…50c7backed No23c1,300$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e7…9a6fbacked No46c1,202$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick27cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No46c1,111$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.0361740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f0…d33dbacked No2c1,109$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.42313%3 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08fa…a865backed No23c1,064$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2462347.8%11 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+90.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No30c1,046$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.7520443.6%89 W · 115 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1809…4eb7backed Yes77c1,038$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked No11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No62c954.2$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.756113.1%8 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd33a…2cc4backed Yes53c947.17$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.173441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d5…fa0ebacked No10c920.12$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No35c873.88$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.1612930.2%39 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed No2c863$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No51c838.41$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.598350.6%42 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Yes51c834.25$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.3713548.1%65 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes76c829.32$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.3335046%161 W · 189 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes49c812.86$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.567032.9%23 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes32c792.89$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.261127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x757d…9165backed No3c763.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No22c747.91$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.586113.1%8 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…d0b2backed No3c738.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-78.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No13c730.53$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.395230.8%16 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e4…517abacked Yes72c723.36$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.54238.7%2 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-77.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Yes21c711.42$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.423759.5%22 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes78c667.69$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.5115219.1%29 W · 123 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No7c642.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.985225%13 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No22c641.94$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.868783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06b0…fcfbbacked No26c620.52$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2590%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2438942.9%167 W · 222 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes55c583.63$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.643141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb540…b343backed No11c544$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.84395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x112a…d900backed No3c518.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.362437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef7a…ddd2backed No9c486.87$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x613c…4075backed No3c483$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215e…faafbacked No3c477.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…aec6backed No10c457.71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x111f…af00backed Yes79c443.04$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.042128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-44.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd95…a744backed No4c436.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1192…32ebbacked Yes76c425.44$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No38c421.01$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.918324.1%20 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3764…9590backed No25c412.35$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.52433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Yes63c399.98$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.993033.3%10 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed No4c342.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.721,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d79…ae69backed Yes57c329.48$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.681643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…466fbacked No7c329$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No76c321.58$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6822041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe96c…afc7backed Yes77c317.05$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.441225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-28.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x25b6…dd11backed Yes79c316.46$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x355a…98a6backed No32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3eec…8f96backed No7c294.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.111353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a92…4f21backed Yes79c281.56$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68f6…7742backed Yes79c277.82$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.822544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b0…f9a8backed No6c250.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.01757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No6c247.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.837041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No28c244.04$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2735049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1fe…1779backed Yes76c231.84$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.