NBA · resolved market
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa622b70a278159ebfde980a51fb2ec885ada7721a403a50641cce8f13fe79ea0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $723,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $262,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $723,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 56,224$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…3d69backed Yes | 0c | 45,025$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…8e09backed Yes | 0c | 43,441$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 37,638$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 197 | 8.6%17 W · 180 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 32,432$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 213 | 0.5%1 W · 212 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e6…0201backed Yes | 0c | 30,015$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 4c | 20,321$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.84 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…045fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 11,577$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,470$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…fcdbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…2cbabacked Yes | 4c | 7,888$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…98a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,822$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 0c | 7,092$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 95 | 16.8%16 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…a8cabacked Yes | 1c | 4,279$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 0c | 4,127$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 5c | 3,007$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.29 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 2,921$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.78 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 0c | 2,457$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,647$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,501$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac62…023bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,386$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 13c | 770.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 764.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335b…8c32backed Yes | 9c | 763.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…da92backed Yes | 5c | 539.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8411…677cbacked Yes | 14c | 425.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 393.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…1378backed Yes | 13c | 390$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2239…c9c0backed Yes | 15c | 326.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 14c | 251.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 58 | 6.9%4 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 8c | 244$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…2101backed Yes | 7c | 204.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1a…c230backed Yes | 13c | 192.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e83…10d9backed Yes | 18c | 135.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 111.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?this page
- Will Anthony Davis win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Devin Booker win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Ja Morant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jayson Tatum win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Joel Embiid win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kevin Durant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will LeBron James win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?Yes won
- Will Stephen Curry win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Trae Young win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.