TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$944,907
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$802,801

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $944,907 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,315 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x35fb…ab4dbacked Yes8c49,000$3,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,975.221250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+252.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes21c25,600$5,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2665628.6%16 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+104.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Yes6c19,162$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.733852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd6…3b62backed Yes18c15,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30bc…a0fabacked Yes8c12,461$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04860%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c12,158$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c11,201$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.44517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-75.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed Yes58c11,157$6,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4205722.8%13 W · 44 L-10.3wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-50.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes14c11,149$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.755230.8%16 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c10,552$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93273.7%1 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-94.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes12c10,228$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.822317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f3…4bcebacked Yes21c10,044$2,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.582326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c9,492$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.17984.1%4 W · 94 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes27c9,235$2,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,535.749946.5%46 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes5c8,866$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.0180%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa38…ffb3backed Yes18c8,794$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.410925.7%28 W · 81 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc8…5bf1backed Yes2c8,334$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.63147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Yes12c8,165$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.023450%17 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd95f…be7bbacked Yes3c7,748$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes7c7,174$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.146820.6%14 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Yes1c7,086$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4172341.2%298 W · 425 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes24c6,659$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.2638942.9%167 W · 222 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes37c6,587$2,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4556113.1%8 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad3…bfecbacked Yes27c6,100$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…9729backed Yes33c6,006$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes40c5,660$2,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,252.522750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No17c5,629$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,671.916026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9e…bb02backed Yes2c5,609$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed Yes4c5,430$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d4a…2215backed Yes11c5,375$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.5519838.9%77 W · 121 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0adb…7693backed Yes3c5,217$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.24120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151550%0 W · 155 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x610d…188bbacked Yes1c4,899$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7618628%52 W · 134 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x779f…b18dbacked Yes1c4,850$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef2…fc44backed Yes21c4,723$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes27c4,604$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.711,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes7c4,300$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2814035%14 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4526…4693backed Yes6c4,219$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No67c4,205$2,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.82441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes16c4,201$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.951540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes7c4,172$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes46c4,001$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.991,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No64c4,000$2,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.510244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes17c3,889$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.0787049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed Yes1c3,777$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.344238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,669$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.321,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes36c3,661$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.3112930.2%39 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c3,141$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.352130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x089e…6e0ebacked Yes13c3,094$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.979442.6%40 W · 54 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes2c3,077$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4219.5%2 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-75.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f02…d5f4backed Yes23c3,026$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…d0b2backed Yes2c2,950$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-78.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1de2…d932backed Yes6c2,779$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.81216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes3c2,744$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6213133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Yes12c2,718$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3716443.3%71 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes31c2,678$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.636113.1%8 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes4c2,528$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.218647.7%41 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes19c2,500$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4753917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-52.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes5c2,426$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.791,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf599…f15fbacked Yes2c2,419$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf037…26eebacked Yes6c2,358$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e6…0201backed Yes2c2,350$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes5c2,182$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.274422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe58…4acbbacked Yes37c2,179$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.795453.7%29 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b41…82b7backed Yes5c2,159$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes44c2,154$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.48853.4%47 W · 41 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Yes5c2,068$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2411654.3%63 W · 53 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes4c2,057$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0941227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c2,053$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.19795.1%4 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes8c2,052$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.0226640.2%107 W · 159 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26e4…517abacked Yes6c2,034$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112238.7%2 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-77.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78f7…c1b2backed Yes3c2,034$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Yes10c2,030$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011229.5%33 W · 79 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes9c2,000$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17876249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No63c1,957$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.1722041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc1f…cb6abacked Yes20c1,950$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.91825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes22c1,885$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4102825%7 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-35.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa285…98e8backed Yes1c1,885$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355a…98a6backed Yes27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes15c1,809$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.81936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Yes9c1,800$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1705032%16 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54a1…7cb1backed Yes50c1,800$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90070%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a01…0afabacked Yes19c1,793$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c1,701$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.091,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x677f…3d69backed Yes5c1,663$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Yes19c1,600$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3041435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes7c1,553$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3690%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Yes4c1,535$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8337448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes44c1,510$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.616750.7%34 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x405e…c304backed Yes1c1,489$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c9…3bf8backed Yes27c1,474$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…fd19backed Yes3c1,472$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8967…41aebacked Yes1c1,418$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6b…3ba7backed Yes4c1,417$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501625%4 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06b0…fcfbbacked Yes23c1,404$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.1890%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe55…cf51backed Yes3c1,393$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc11…9752backed Yes8c1,299$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e2…8f10backed Yes13c1,239$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No79c1,234$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.125845%116 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4982…0a72backed Yes20c1,210$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.