TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x32b6…2f9f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
182
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 63 out of 100; worst AI at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST3542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+72.4%+$72.41
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+42.3%+$44.85
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$16.95
Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$57.25
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$56
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$3
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$26
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+886.4%+$363.43
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+26.3%+$20.85
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$23.85
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$51
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+178.3%+$102.29
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$325
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$82
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,082Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,082
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+79.8%+$60.34
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+55.5%+$66.59
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$405.44
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$110
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT2825%7 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-35.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron's next contract average $15M-$50M per year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$369.02
Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+178.9%+$186.03
NBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+315.2%+$78.76
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.27
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$25.3
Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.5
Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.05
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$773Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$772.61
Wizards vs. Warriorsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
76ers vs. Pistonsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.94
Warriors vs. Thunderbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$230
Pacers vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$78.57
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$882Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+293.2%+$2,585.9
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$410
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,380Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,380
Bulls vs. Celticsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST-100%-$2,000
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST-100%-$500
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+35.8%+$4.67
Spurs vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$1,200
Trail Blazers vs. Pacersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$300
Rockets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$110
Bucks vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Trail Blazers vs. Rocketsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2673.1%19 W · 7 L+5.9wins+0.23per pick51cpaid+24.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.94
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$29
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$225.53
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+61.2%+$37.95
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.2
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$250
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+154.9%+$455.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$703Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+98.1%+$689.51
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.06
Will Solana reach $120 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$33
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$20.99
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+104.1%+$51
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$63.16
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+96.1%+$192.16
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$442.4
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+108.3%+$108.33
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$60
Will Solana reach $190 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+51.5%+$34
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+108.3%+$108.33
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
Will Solana reach $270 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+26%+$25.95
Ethereum all time high by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$44.93
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.75
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$12.25
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$22.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$133
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+270.4%+$73
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+412.8%+$161
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$8.57
US strikes Yemen by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
No US strike on Syria in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$76
US strike on Syria by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$76
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.01
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.61
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.61
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.55
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+103.6%+$243.57
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.5
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+25.3%+$12.12
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$830Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$830
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$131.99
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$154.54
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$31.32
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+166.4%+$406
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$314.12
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$118
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20.1
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick40cpaid-84.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.33
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$96.5
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$220
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,800
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$315
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+73.2%+$73.22
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+117.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Poker — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dern vs. Jandirobabacked Dern · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$66
Covington vs. Buckleybacked Covington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,594Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$1,593.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$9,667Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+58.7%+$5,677.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$29.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.