TailMyPicks
Market

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,052,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$870,316

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,052,130 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes7c109,795$8,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,026.5835123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x530e…cc11backed Yes4c75,786$3,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,035.776123%14 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+143.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes6c68,637$3,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,901.5463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3526…aababacked Yes5c40,070$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.225425.9%14 W · 40 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick11cpaid+83.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfbfd…c32dbacked Yes6c38,977$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,392.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e32…31fdbacked Yes4c34,313$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af1…7b88backed Yes5c31,161$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.723414.7%5 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff03…2a65backed Yes7c26,840$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e4e…c0f5backed Yes4c26,838$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.8950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes10c20,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Yes4c15,057$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.57120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa247…7175backed Yes5c11,816$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.331050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes5c8,627$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.261483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x850b…be60backed Yes8c8,432$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes6c8,279$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.3928113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89a0…3681backed Yes6c8,089$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c6,936$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.274163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe967…368dbacked Yes1c6,761$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e5e…502ebacked Yes1c6,300$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c6b4backed Yes6c6,106$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.374413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes1c6,005$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd72d…60ddbacked Yes5c5,970$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…5577backed Yes3c5,573$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa9d…e83dbacked Yes6c5,474$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked Yes8c5,031$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.6450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fc…ac2bbacked Yes9c5,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes5c4,848$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.79994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes5c4,594$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.321043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090c…4deebacked Yes4c4,530$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.122711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes6c4,196$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.9411328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes7c4,075$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.22520%5 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a1…aef0backed Yes6c3,894$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed8b…e92cbacked Yes2c3,526$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3290%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1307…bd75backed Yes9c3,218$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.741631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick16cpaid+80%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Yes5c3,218$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.223520%7 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c3,200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.42126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed Yes8c3,068$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a8…d351backed Yes13c3,049$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.87714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-75.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes8c2,862$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.286013.3%8 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551b…b47ebacked Yes5c2,858$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes10c2,749$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.314337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d4…12d9backed Yes8c2,740$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes4c2,736$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.574010%4 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes3c2,708$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.271105.5%6 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f2…1b7ebacked Yes5c2,671$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f05…8a73backed Yes4c2,404$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.371520%3 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+165.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeec…a84abacked Yes7c2,400$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e15…b101backed Yes8c2,229$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.683016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed Yes8c2,213$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.731376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49b1…16bbbacked Yes3c2,083$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de7…89a4backed Yes9c2,045$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.5190%0 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes5c2,009$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.982825%7 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010545.7%48 W · 57 L+22.9wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+94.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x3c27…4381backed Yes3c1,987$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fdf…a9efbacked Yes3c1,980$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.96425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ee…7b23backed Yes2c1,839$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbc…d427backed Yes5c1,793$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2224…23e1backed Yes3c1,548$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb828…6703backed Yes5c1,540$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3780%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8012…5b01backed Yes7c1,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.42425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8577…0eb3backed Yes7c1,440$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…01e1backed Yes2c1,413$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes7c1,410$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.951233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba3…738cbacked Yes4c1,400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dfb…1000backed Yes7c1,389$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17fb…7f14backed Yes13c1,327$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,291$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.771,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x709b…0a0abacked Yes7c1,227$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.551315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-57.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…dadebacked Yes7c1,171$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338d…0fe5backed Yes2c1,151$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0815…6023backed Yes6c1,122$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes7c1,093$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc8…7a07backed Yes14c1,089$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150267.7%2 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b09…015cbacked Yes3c1,049$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.795016%8 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes3c1,034$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.55110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes8c1,000$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.22673.1%19 W · 7 L+5.9wins+0.23per pick51cpaid+24.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0f71…912dbacked Yes5c920.69$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.24695.8%4 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe06a…b155backed Yes12c899.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4129…4dc9backed Yes3c865.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.67120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes3c842.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.67590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes3c806.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.02449.1%4 W · 40 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-85.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes7c800$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5216729.3%49 W · 118 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes7c766.72$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59ce…d001backed Yes13c765.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066b…8d04backed Yes3c730.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccde…66ddbacked Yes5c730$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf10c…002fbacked Yes9c685.39$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c09…dc83backed Yes2c658.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f00…d4a3backed Yes3c645.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe138…1d84backed Yes3c636.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…f111backed Yes2c628.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb09a…7fc7backed Yes3c619.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201833.3%6 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+237.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6d4…7af5backed Yes4c555.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca89…b94abacked Yes5c526.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.93633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…b009backed Yes3c499.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+95%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc34…c663backed Yes5c467.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-67%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x557d…c29dbacked Yes7c463.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.47633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524673.9%34 W · 12 L+9.4wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+28%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes5c375$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.696613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.