Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x259742b3270e227ebe23c5f238f21a13e4b17897acd34a19ebfca9ac8127c2e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $257,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b2a…160dbacked Yes | 0c | 37,529$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561f…e4fabacked Yes | 0c | 15,238$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…8842backed Yes | 2c | 10,434$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 4c | 10,317$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.93 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 0c | 7,756$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 6c | 7,404$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.11 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…2d8abacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 2c | 4,976$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 4,931$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…8af7backed Yes | 4c | 3,379$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…2177backed Yes | 3c | 2,748$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8172…abeabacked Yes | 3c | 2,079$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…efe0backed Yes | 2c | 2,079$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…a7e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,675$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 3c | 1,673$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…7b7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,613$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 1c | 1,368$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 1c | 1,318$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…3456backed Yes | 3c | 1,267$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,265$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fa…d124backed Yes | 2c | 1,095$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…cb49backed Yes | 2c | 680.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a0…20dabacked Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa107…14febacked Yes | 4c | 570$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 3c | 403$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 380$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…d048backed Yes | 3c | 377.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes | 3c | 363.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.