Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c19f6e2af9a203184d0f65319733db19f0ae7da8cd07cde99b1493d64e62a76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $543,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $551,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $543,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c5f…31d1backed Yes | 1c | 76,000$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 3c | 64,285$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.41 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…8e30backed Yes | 4c | 17,632$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…c0f5backed Yes | 2c | 12,113$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 1c | 11,171$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.27 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…b347backed Yes | 1c | 10,200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Yes | 4c | 7,998$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.99 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6e…9f3abacked Yes | 3c | 7,863$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e32…31fdbacked Yes | 1c | 7,786$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6b…bc41backed Yes | 4c | 7,409$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…61cabacked Yes | 1c | 7,059$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ff…c152backed Yes | 4c | 4,969$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…0eb3backed Yes | 3c | 4,633$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9668…edbcbacked Yes | 2c | 4,593$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,537$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 2c | 3,874$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 3,620$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 2c | 3,001$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,708$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,308$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…738cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,215$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,868$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,779$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 3c | 1,705$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed8b…e92cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,512$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,475$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…4dc9backed Yes | 2c | 1,355$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…d4ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,312$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…aa7cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,292$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0799backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e4…c33ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,175$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,129$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…7b23backed Yes | 1c | 1,106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…7a07backed Yes | 4c | 1,105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,062$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…344dbacked Yes | 3c | 951.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 2c | 918.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0add…ea05backed Yes | 3c | 835.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 1c | 827.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x868e…5392backed Yes | 3c | 769.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…015cbacked Yes | 2c | 687.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…178ebacked Yes | 3c | 425.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…2b36backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…fabcbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.