Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa24ab699db0ef04c103f21426efbf8be968a509dd4b11b7cc50e766ea0ef59eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 5c | 28,521$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.19 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…2d19backed No | 6c | 15,444$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 2c | 3,827$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6398…9150backed No | 3c | 2,982$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…b101backed No | 11c | 2,399$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.02 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,297$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,744$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 2c | 1,452$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked No | 6c | 1,374$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed No | 6c | 1,253$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabc9…8a71backed No | 3c | 1,167$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec9…f20dbacked No | 21c | 1,018$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked No | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…3976backed Yes | 79c | 809.55$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 3c | 793.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41be…6df5backed No | 1c | 779.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 19c | 751$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 3c | 618.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x930c…2651backed No | 6c | 537.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…f2edbacked No | 10c | 504.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bd…1be6backed Yes | 78c | 480.77$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…6c87backed Yes | 78c | 480.77$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…decabacked No | 25c | 430$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6075…82bbbacked Yes | 78c | 423.08$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked No | 7c | 411.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed No | 8c | 330.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8591…43f6backed No | 12c | 325.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 4c | 278.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 7c | 264.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…5d58backed No | 15c | 227.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…d40bbacked No | 20c | 206.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55cf…6cd0backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe772…9084backed No | 17c | 171.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…8ec8backed No | 9c | 164.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…33a4backed No | 11c | 157.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 151.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…a440backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d4…5911backed Yes | 79c | 132.91$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 8c | 129.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…e586backed No | 18c | 111.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749d…1fb3backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked Yes | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +9.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +28%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…855bbacked Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…b2e8backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54e…9598backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…1f1fbacked Yes | 77c | 20.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…e165backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.