Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf61c22712328d3422718545c663375cdca9310425fa67dabac2757bf53a11eec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $528,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $454,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $528,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b2a…160dbacked Yes | 0c | 56,708$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.05 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…c5f0backed Yes | 6c | 56,364$3,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 1c | 25,641$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.04 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 0c | 22,246$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 7c | 19,569$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.86 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…5577backed Yes | 0c | 14,743$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 7c | 13,262$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.96 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 5c | 12,601$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.97 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 12,019$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561f…e4fabacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…676dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,520$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.24 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…7b7ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,797$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.89 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 7,775$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes | 9c | 6,597$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.86 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…a7e9backed Yes | 1c | 5,712$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 4,396$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…ced4backed Yes | 3c | 4,115$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…540cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,053$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23aa…4008backed Yes | 3c | 3,782$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…5723backed Yes | 4c | 3,452$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 3c | 2,853$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa3…b72fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,808$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,804$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Yes | 3c | 2,744$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,612$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf56…97edbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 2c | 2,495$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da5…90c9backed Yes | 4c | 2,060$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -85%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,001$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 2c | 1,984$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes | 7c | 1,966$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,281$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf82…17febacked Yes | 8c | 1,280$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…01cfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,161$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed Yes | 3c | 1,015$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…b101backed Yes | 8c | 978.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 4c | 837.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…a879backed Yes | 8c | 793.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb140…dcdfbacked Yes | 7c | 738$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e051backed Yes | 8c | 735.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0242…7375backed Yes | 3c | 735.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Yes | 6c | 464.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…3902backed Yes | 3c | 450.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 436$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked Yes | 3c | 429.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4660…43aabacked Yes | 3c | 381.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561c…11cbbacked Yes | 8c | 363$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa107…14febacked Yes | 8c | 359.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…01a0backed Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…36cfbacked Yes | 3c | 336.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1808…1dfcbacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 5c | 330$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b6…9272backed Yes | 5c | 203.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +114%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…d048backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…056ebacked Yes | 10c | 144$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…4dcdbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.