TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7418…ab9f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
417
Categories scored
35
Categories below 50
22

Best Category: Other European Leagues, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Other European Leagues at 59 out of 100; worst MLB at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT12942.6%55 W · 74 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 129 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensikbacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.24
Segovia: Matteo Martineau vs Oliver Crawfordbacked Oliver Crawford · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.87
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.72
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$39.9
Wimbledon ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Ferybacked Arthur Fery · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+95%+$72.47
Wimbledon WTA (Doubles): Perez/Schuurs vs Aoyama/Liangbacked Aoyama/Liang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Ferybacked Arthur Fery · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$148.96
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublikbacked Alexander Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullinbacked Roman Safiullin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$14.18
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Geabacked Soon-Woo Kwon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$29
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searlebacked Henry Searle · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.4
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Learner Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Ferybacked Adrian Mannarino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.14
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Harrison/Skupski vs Krajicek/Mekticbacked Harrison/Skupski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$12.6
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarrobacked Yulia Starodubtseva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarkebacked Christopher O'Connell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+85.4%+$42.69
Tiafoe vs. Shimabukuro: Match O/U 22.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$15.2
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinskibacked Maks Kasnikowski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggermanbacked Laslo Djere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+129.6%+$22.58
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travagliabacked Roberto Carballes Baena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$34.4
Set Handicap: Zelinskaya (-1.5) vs Luo (+1.5)backed Zelinskaya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.6
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$34.8
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rochabacked Henrique Rocha · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$21
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomerybacked Robin Montgomery · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+400%+$80
Showing 25 of 129 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT3748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+272.3%+$314.5
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+37%+$10.8
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.07
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.5
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.63
1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.26
VfB Stuttgart leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.9
VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+113.1%+$62.52
Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.34
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$207.09
Will FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+77.2%+$50.65
1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.74
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$44
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.92
SC Freiburg leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.07
FC Bayern München leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+76.6%+$45.93
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.27
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.51
RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$47
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.97
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$43.79
RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$5.51
FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.92
Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$51.03
VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$27.4
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT3627.8%10 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-38.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
MLB — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.5
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$54.33
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.02
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.2
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$64.89
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)backed Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.46
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.52
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.8
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$59
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$26.4
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.39
Athletics vs. New York Metsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$38.93
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.61
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.32
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.82
Athletics vs. New York Metsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.9
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.03
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.54
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.98
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.35
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.37
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT2846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liverpool FC leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.8
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$32.9
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.08
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.16
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$56.1
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$16.8
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.39
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.55
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$61.61
Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$48.16
Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+75.9%+$30.67
Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11.47
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.96
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.25
Wrexham AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+222.6%+$134.48
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+69.5%+$13.84
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+81.8%+$24.55
Will Burnley FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$115.76
Liverpool FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Liverpool FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+66.7%+$30.67
Will Chelsea FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$37
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.95
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.1
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$227.15
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.27
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$394.4
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.94
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.32
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.28
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$124
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)backed Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.31
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.6
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.17
San Marino vs. Bangladesh: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.26
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$30.4
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$35
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$51.3
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$14.7
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT2035%7 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$28.8
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+365.1%+$86.98
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.5
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.6
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$217.6
Valencia CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+203%+$96.46
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.41
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.06
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.34
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+89.5%+$136
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.1
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+343.1%+$170.14
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-03-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$124
FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$177.89
Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+81.8%+$16.92
Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Real Oviedo vs. Girona FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$34.16
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$59.99
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.66
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$346.23
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.68
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.11
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$905Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$904.7
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.74
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$398.87
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$690Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$690.15
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.95
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+542.2%+$813.19
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$70.1
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$173.34
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$201.34
Will the US strike Syria next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 18 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+74.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$157.99
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.55
SBV Excelsior vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+491.1%+$93.32
Spread: FC Utrecht (-2.5)backed FC Utrecht · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.11
SBV Excelsior vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$30.16
NAC Breda vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$319.55
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$94.64
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$38.25
Will Randers FC win on 2026-04-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.13
Randers FC vs. FC Fredericia: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.17
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$27.4
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.63
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)backed CD Nacional · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$36
SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+53.8%+$79.07
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.94
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Alanyaspor vs. Eyüpspor: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+81.8%+$20.15
All 17 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.65
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.06
Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$93.25
Spread: Suns (-10.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$70.59
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$48.56
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$228
Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$94
Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneylinebacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+158.7%+$122.7
1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Pacers vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$123.05
Clippers vs. Spursbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$153.65
Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+56.3%+$79.2
Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$54
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$220
Celtics vs. Pistonsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Hawks vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$88
All 17 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$36.67
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.6
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.5
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$35.23
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+57.7%+$46.22
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.52
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+112.8%+$53
FC Bayern München vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$68
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$31.11
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$81.75
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+40.1%+$23.24
All 14 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$241.8
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Genoa CFC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+77.4%+$30.14
ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+60%+$9.85
ACF Fiorentina leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.95
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$15.21
Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+87.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Asian League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+62.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+81.8%+$58.09
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$260
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+150%+$150
All 3 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+143.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Qingdao Eagles vs. Zhejiang Golden Bullsbacked Zhejiang Golden Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$15.58
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Anadolu Efesbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+56.1%+$11.21
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.02
KF Víkingur vs. FC Thun: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$49.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.11
Jets vs. Blackhawksbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will No Other Choice win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$204.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BYU Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked BYU Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$17
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atlético San Luis vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$120
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)backed Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$230.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.