Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8f1a0c1bf421615e7e6dbdb05b9a16aab5e688d6d39edb355b7cc739a670776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,214$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.55 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 68c | 1,467$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.96 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 66cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 1,384$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.02 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 804.95$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.81 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Under | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 32c | 619.13$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.05 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…8d9bbacked Over | 39c | 588.38$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Over | 38c | 584.36$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.33 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 2c | 527.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 58c | 517.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.33 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 42c | 452.56$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.56 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 61c | 408.97$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.47 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 61c | 399.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 72c | 313.89$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 33c | 303.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 38c | 251.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.07 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 216.93$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.33 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 61c | 212.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 67c | 193.32$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.62 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…fab4backed Over | 23c | 190$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 172.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Over | 32c | 159.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 157.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 43c | 156.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…0912backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a31…67b7backed Over | 39c | 143.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 62c | 135.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…e775backed Over | 39c | 133.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 71c | 105.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 74c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 70c | 101.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Under | 63c | 97.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 63c | 95.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 36c | 89.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 22c | 82.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Over | 39c | 78.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 70c | 72.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 56c | 70.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Over | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 44c | 62.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 42c | 44.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 73c | 43.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd777…8ceabacked Under | 63c | 40.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…694ebacked Over | 38c | 36.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…bc51backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 63c | 16.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Over | 67c | 15.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.