TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7b94…315b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
202
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: NBA, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 59 out of 100; worst Champions League at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.76
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.6
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+55.3%+$33.18
PSV vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+49.7%+$29.83
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+56.3%+$35.94
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$53.22
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$14.1
Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$34.16
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Galatasaray SK vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+55.6%+$25
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+53.8%+$24.23
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$88.68
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$58.17
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+91.3%+$41.08
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+42.9%+$37.95
Will Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+185.7%+$92.86
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$397.11
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$99.48
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 24 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST2176.2%16 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Pistons (-12.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+66.7%+$26.67
Spread: Warriors (-5.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+69.6%+$13.92
Celtics vs. Hawksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+66.7%+$26.67
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Hornets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Hornets vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+92.3%+$18.46
Jazz vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+66.7%+$26.67
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+100%+$25
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$40.4
Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Thunder vs. Rocketsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+58.7%+$23.49
Nuggets vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Nets vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+117.4%+$23.48
Cavaliers vs. 76ersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+100%+$20
Raptors vs. Pacersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+81.8%+$16.36
Kings vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+46.6%+$46.22
Clippers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+49.3%+$39.4
Raptors vs. Pacersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+38.9%+$64.94
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+31.8%+$21.49
Pacers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+58.7%+$134.55
Hawks vs. Jazzbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+81.8%+$49.48
All 21 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2035%7 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.99
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$22.5
Liverpool FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+79.8%+$39.91
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+113.5%+$184.25
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+51.5%+$51.52
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$237.83
Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$97.87
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+212.5%+$85
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$175.01
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$63.83
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$284.89
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+72.4%+$43.45
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+65.3%+$32.63
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2025, EST1838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Poland win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+31.6%+$23.53
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+84%+$180.29
Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+151%+$276.52
Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will Germany vs. Slovakia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+217.1%+$325.6
Will Israel win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+51.5%+$51.52
Will England win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+37%+$36.99
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Romania win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+56.3%+$204.33
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$52
Will Slovenia vs. Kosovo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Georgia win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$26.47
Will Wales win on 2025-11-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$484.41
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Will Finland win on 2025-11-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$261.22
All 18 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST1844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$192.25
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+81.8%+$49.09
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+53.8%+$26.92
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$95
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+110.6%+$316.38
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+72.8%+$101.9
RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+47.1%+$47.06
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$19.38
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$75
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+72.4%+$92.25
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+96.1%+$30.1
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+26.6%+$15.95
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 18 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+40.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$130.95
Will Torino FC win on 2026-02-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+122.2%+$30.56
Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$25
SS Lazio vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$27.68
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+61.3%+$36.77
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+96.1%+$57.65
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$174.75
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+753.3%+$132.2
Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+85.2%+$42.59
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+143.9%+$35.98
Will US Lecce win on 2025-12-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+150%+$60
All 15 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1540%6 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
PSV vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Heracles Almelo vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$30.18
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Sparta Rotterdam vs. FC Groningen: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$60.74
PEC Zwolle vs. Telstar 1963: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+66.7%+$20
AZ vs. NEC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+51.5%+$25.76
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+53.8%+$43.08
Will FC Volendam win on 2026-01-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$60
SC Heerenveen vs. FC Groningen: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will NEC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+170.3%+$51.08
Will PSV win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+108.3%+$108.33
Will NEC win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$230.21
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$75
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 15 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$42.95
Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+69.5%+$29.87
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$60
CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+75.4%+$17.18
Villarreal CF vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$27.03
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$715Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$715.05
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+53.8%+$32.31
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+100.8%+$40.33
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-01-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+108.3%+$32.5
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+316.7%+$79.17
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2025-12-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+122.2%+$73.33
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Islanders vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$173.7
Islanders vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+42.9%+$42.86
Jets vs. Flamesbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+81.8%+$98.18
Sharks vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+69.5%+$27.8
Golden Knights vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Flyers vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+50.7%+$40.54
Sabres vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Lightning vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Canucks vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+38.9%+$93.33
Canucks vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$50.47
Stars vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$118.32
All 11 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. SK Brann: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Real Betis Balompié vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+51.5%+$20.61
FC Basel 1893 vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$22.65
KRC Genk vs. Malmö FF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+49.3%+$29.55
Olympique Lyonnais vs. PAOK: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+81.8%+$40.91
Olympique Lyonnais vs. PAOK: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+69.5%+$41.69
Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+25%+$34.77
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$228.43
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+75.4%+$80.82
All 10 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Tigres de la UANL vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$25.5
Will CF América win on 2026-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Querétaro FC vs. Club Tijuana: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+81.8%+$20.45
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+58.7%+$58.73
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+167.4%+$167.43
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+40.8%+$49.01
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 50.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+78.6%+$157.14
Texans vs. Titansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+56%+$55.66
Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)backed Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Commanders vs. Dolphins: O/U 46.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+100%+$80
All 4 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.