TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,217,298
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,452,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,217,298 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 701 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed No43c213,815$91,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,116.32759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed No41c143,680$59,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,43910553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Yes57c100,000$57,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,0001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes59c68,485$40,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,222.6315134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No42c58,933$24,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,978.46051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes58c38,500$22,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,35516652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No51c38,310$19,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,511.033,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Yes57c37,894$21,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,323.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes60c35,986$21,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,404.8433945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No42c31,897$13,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,551.35052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe8…3549backed No38c30,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,400520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-70.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Yes55c26,461$14,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,907.591163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes55c26,229$14,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,803.081,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7087…c61fbacked Yes52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.982441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa98…b8f7backed Yes53c9,257$4,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,316.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes51c9,220$4,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,537.5475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Yes55c9,091$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,090.93748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Yes57c8,778$4,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,806.692240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No58c7,856$4,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,53253645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed No45c7,688$3,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,458.912850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No37c7,413$2,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,752.959831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x285e…c2f4backed No39c7,137$2,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,793.04650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked No38c6,953$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.324443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No39c6,743$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,629.837062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77fb…3e17backed Yes61c6,557$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.38875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes57c6,478$3,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800.11,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No38c5,915$2,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,247.776234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Yes43c5,869$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,370.122050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed No73c5,547$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.654351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed No40c5,501$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.875653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1508752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked No38c4,816$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.078037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes62c4,275$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.3214756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Yes57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7202962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes56c3,882$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.6523046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3859…3070backed Yes27c3,700$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes57c3,695$2,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.1469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed No44c3,409$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50015540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Yes61c3,279$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.691968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d80…cd30backed Yes66c3,008$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.423100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1409549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed Yes58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2603721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Yes56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.984835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes55c2,872$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.1855058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed No38c2,632$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b2a…4a00backed Yes58c2,586$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab1f…423abacked Yes58c2,515$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Yes57c2,205$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.181241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Yes42c2,200$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2847847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes55c2,182$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.825440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No41c2,118$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.9611056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Yes55c2,092$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.45655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No39c2,088$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.5410945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb4…9771backed Yes62c2,041$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.08771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes30c2,000$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.734544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes45c2,000$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x063b…7328backed Yes57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8602100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+55.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Yes61c1,972$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.221266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7862…46abbacked Yes57c1,951$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a53…8c81backed Yes32c1,875$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2751533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes56c1,850$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8143357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Yes57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.391353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…ed83backed Yes57c1,754$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Yes57c1,749$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.434100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Yes29c1,724$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked No38c1,700$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6457335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed No60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002882.1%23 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Yes40c1,610$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96611630.2%35 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed Yes47c1,582$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes55c1,563$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.771435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Yes57c1,529$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.73557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ab…6321backed Yes28c1,500$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+76.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed No42c1,446$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.982147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7fd…6c23backed Yes29c1,403$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff0…271bbacked Yes53c1,316$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.524266.7%28 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44d…8dbbbacked Yes60c1,258$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Yes58c1,209$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.624264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes57c1,208$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.922,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Yes57c1,158$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.895046%23 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes41c1,100$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.98966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+44.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x504f…e2a2backed No40c1,092$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Yes46c1,092$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.573360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4a5…398fbacked Yes61c1,074$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.513100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc126…26c6backed Yes32c1,060$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed No48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Yes46c1,034$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.224658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…d7a0backed Yes52c1,019$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.231540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Yes47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Yes50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5004522.2%10 W · 35 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4308251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4309048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb763…247dbacked Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e2d…4323backed Yes57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4301560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed Yes31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Yes61c999.99$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Yes31c999.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.991050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes41c999.98$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.9912952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed No38c999.98$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.993525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x291b…2667backed No38c999.98$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.991154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.