TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$255,892
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$268,063

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,892 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x827f…7f59backed Yes51c19,176$9,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,396.071553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No52c17,559$9,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,130.5933945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked No0c16,858$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.862213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+287.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes57c12,000$6,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,159.9916045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No0c10,213$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.213450%17 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+815.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No49c9,966$4,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,851.7469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yes48c7,555$3,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,928.62065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74d7…6beabacked No0c6,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182015%3 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes59c5,722$3,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.647757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No45c4,353$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.573,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes51c4,157$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.9314756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47023046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes59c2,775$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.5610641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No47c2,544$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.411,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No50c2,465$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.510945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9610…f02cbacked No49c2,343$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.9530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75dd…171dbacked Yes49c2,210$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.13177.4%24 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick77cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed No49c2,053$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9805457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0009854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed No50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes73c1,999$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.0475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Yes51c1,993$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.861650%8 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No45c1,803$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.381,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes51c1,776$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.0656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes54c1,754$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.0116060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Yes51c1,506$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.112867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x778d…cbe2backed No50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed No50c1,350$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6752638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes51c1,240$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.6444749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No48c1,068$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.513721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Yes51c1,053$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.823857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked No51c1,043$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.85655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No36c1,040$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.162,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes77c1,035$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.894856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde6c…c5d8backed Yes50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5002250%11 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Yes50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5009048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…63fcbacked No50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4906053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes51c999.98$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.993748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Yes53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.48846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes51c850$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.538055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked No49c837.67$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.4650%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Yes51c758.14$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.493948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92d8…9762backed No20c755.54$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.114447.7%21 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+260.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Yes50c730.71$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.368752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed No51c590$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.91747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a46…ba91backed Yes51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.248858%51 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92ae…a7b0backed No50c488.41$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.211070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes54c462.96$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.966262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes50c404$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20230054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Yes50c403.28$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.77753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Yes50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…f2f2backed Yes52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.622055%11 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Yes52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.624353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4597…272bbacked Yes52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.623246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Yes53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.361553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes70c316$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No44c312.75$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No49c300$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6838748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed No49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1473122.6%7 W · 24 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes50c300$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.149746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked No49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1477335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes66c292$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.456553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No26c291.96$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.158551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No49c286.13$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2511056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9058…a2c2backed Yes53c244.17$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.762040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…625dbacked Yes51c240$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1186639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Yes53c236.25$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.044643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Yes51c235.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.293847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d0…899bbacked Yes51c235.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.29887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick53cpaid+67.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed No34c220.8$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1911644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x604d…4608backed Yes48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.332737%10 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No49c204$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9634342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes51c200.01$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9715847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10413851.4%71 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006136.1%22 W · 39 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked No48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9614539.3%57 W · 88 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked Yes50c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.54938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes50c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.55250%26 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b8…3539backed No49c199.97$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.991050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No47c198.96$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5551136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x486b…2eaabacked Yes52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Yes52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Yes52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No45c189.24$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6140744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes52c174.59$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5920436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes49c169.72$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.735552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes50c168.41$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5319446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Yes53c160.57$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4719055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No10c149.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.68946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Yes51c149.76$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3818746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a9f…1be8backed Yes73c146.55$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.62540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes74c145$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.744655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed No50c142.16$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.08825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f3…6ae7backed Yes48c135.42$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9380…a275backed Yes49c130$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.