Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00f5a38dd455ee200fae3f825a35d291705ec21ddc5e855ba9c05bb19a33aca6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $294,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $373,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2eb…562dbacked Yes | 25c | 178,468$44,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,758.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed No | 75c | 72,000$54,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,000 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed No | 75c | 40,000$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed No | 74c | 15,000$11,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 75c | 13,500$10,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 7,776$5,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.62 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed No | 75c | 5,600$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 4,387$3,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.73 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 4,152$3,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.46 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 2,985$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 74c | 2,500$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3909…335fbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 716$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked No | 75c | 468$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 423.83$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 25c | 384$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 25c | 384$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 27c | 369.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 75c | 311$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 26c | 206.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 24c | 199.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a4…3358backed Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 75c | 133.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 75c | 131.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf711…db0bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…d0e7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…2427backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc579…21cdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 75c | 99.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 25c | 92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 75c | 90.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed No | 76c | 69.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 25c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 75c | 65.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 36c | 63.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 74c | 55.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 53.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb642…ad9abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…3ab0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554c…7156backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…981bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 75c | 25.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-01-14?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.