South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4583b1596d7f2ff718d09050a77730930b9619803c6c6c2d07d69d4b3285cbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 61c | 6,048$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,388.68 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 2,823$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.21 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 1,676$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.71 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 76c | 1,402$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.94 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…deffbacked Yes | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed Yes | 46c | 1,076$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 40c | 968.99$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.82 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 44c | 815.7$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.91 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 25c | 788$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed No | 56c | 663$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.72 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 23c | 599.87$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.97 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…c2bcbacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Yes | 42c | 439.76$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.7 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 74c | 438.53$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 42c | 400.45$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.19 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 371.17$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.61 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 27c | 370.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked Yes | 42c | 291.43$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Yes | 19c | 282$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 54c | 267.71$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.89 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 67c | 253.73$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 24c | 208.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…46c4backed No | 56c | 189$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…85dabacked Yes | 56c | 177.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 25c | 171.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Yes | 45c | 166.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 51c | 147.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed Yes | 23c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 55c | 128.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 53c | 123.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…4bf9backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…3b7fbacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 26c | 115.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 37c | 101.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 50c | 88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d03…fe3fbacked No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…3668backed Yes | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 50c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb137…4aafbacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed Yes | 26c | 51.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…f1b8backed Yes | 45c | 49.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…09b7backed No | 71c | 48.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…fe7abacked Yes | 30c | 48.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…9450backed Yes | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Yes | 27c | 44.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…b072backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…5964backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…5407backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…2b71backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ecb…d575backed Yes | 42c | 38.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…327dbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…efa6backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf1…225bbacked Yes | 46c | 33.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c89…36aebacked Yes | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f2…e14cbacked Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 40c | 25.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…d46cbacked Yes | 46c | 25.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b19…978cbacked Yes | 55c | 18.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-15?this page
- Will Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?No won
- Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.