TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb102…c73d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
147
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Champions League, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 60 out of 100; worst Asian League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Earnings Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT7731.2%24 W · 53 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 77 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.96
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.47
Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.43
Will Hertz (HTZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.8
Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.55
Will IONQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.84
Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.35
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.94
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.83
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$49.2
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.29
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.59
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.47
Will Williams-Sonoma (WSM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.64
Will Macy's (M) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.41
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+617.5%+$205.69
Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Groupon (GRPN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+94.5%+$283.62
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+63.9%+$23.4
Will Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$57.91
Will Truist Financial (TFC) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.8
Will Wintrust Financial (WTFC) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+44.1%+$30.59
Will KeyCorp (KEY) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+35%+$14.08
Will US Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+25%+$6
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$78
Showing 25 of 77 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT2821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.3
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.6
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$355
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$505Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$505
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.2
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)backed Côte d'Ivoire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$246.21
Spread: United States (-1.5)backed United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$37.14
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+286.5%+$85.96
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+179.3%+$160.49
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
Spread: Germany (-3.5)backed Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$29.81
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+89.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Champions League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.5
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.83
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.46
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$60.27
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$18.27
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$18.46
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$62.37
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+203%+$32.15
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$22.72
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.22
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.43
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+127.3%+$25.45
All 16 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)backed Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+88.7%+$65.8
Spread: Texans (-5.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NEC win on 2025-12-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+75.4%+$30.18
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2025-12-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$165.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Recife win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$27.38
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$122.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2025-11-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2025-11-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$22.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+66.7%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$5.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+33.3%+$7.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$487.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$146.87
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.