Earnings · resolved market
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc126eb6a8b983472ef344d56576477f4daaa48dd0f191f27286481cdfe9d40a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,051 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 56c | 2,062$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.19 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 9c | 1,700$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.87 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 11c | 794.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.87 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 30c | 666$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 3c | 458$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 12c | 399.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.98 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…a82bbacked No | 11c | 365.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +203.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 10c | 282.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.25 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6be3backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 17c | 199.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.96 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 8c | 180$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 10c | 176.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…5f8ebacked Yes | 44c | 168$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 9c | 150.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.51 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 12c | 132.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 12c | 132.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +301.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 12c | 132.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 12c | 132.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 12c | 132.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.88 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked No | 55c | 102$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…164fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 12c | 94.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 15c | 82.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 17c | 65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Yes | 56c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 49c | 32.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…ca56backed No | 68c | 31.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab6…3a89backed No | 69c | 23.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked No | 56c | 23.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…ea0cbacked Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf602…964ebacked No | 77c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.