TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf602…964e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst CS2 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.2
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.6
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$9.44
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$68
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+150%+$59.99
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$246
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$14.6
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+102.2%+$211.58
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+57.5%+$36.5
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+25.8%+$32.8
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$6.13
US forces enter Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$230
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.2%+$16.77
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$60
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$297.04
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,036Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$1,036
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+39.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+72.4%+$12.6
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+72.4%+$8.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+26.6%+$3.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+57.9%+$219.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$46.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+33.3%+$14.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.