TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,626,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,111,215

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,626,224 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc336…02abbacked No0c1,400,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400540%2 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick4cpaid+371.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed No1c152,595$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.69742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick14cpaid+193.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf35…7b0abacked No4c149,515$6,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,352.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No15c143,143$20,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,961.067740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3042…130cbacked No0c110,380$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No1c107,754$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.325343.4%23 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0068…382abacked No1c99,010$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked No6c97,892$5,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,723.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b48…16c5backed No1c90,406$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No5c86,719$4,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500.645641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf396…ed0dbacked No1c82,865$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.6220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed No0c63,628$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.5950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d5…fba3backed No5c56,673$3,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,045.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a58…dd44backed No0c55,190$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.19616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-55%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8d…b8f8backed No0c53,828$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f4…8a29backed No0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No5c45,202$2,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.8741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b4…61f9backed No40c40,734$16,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,293.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed No10c40,296$3,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,935.53296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked No9c40,131$3,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,725.341154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed No1c38,047$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.91540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1260…07cebacked Yes70c37,444$26,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,193.663100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked No23c37,292$8,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,430.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae2…f63abacked No1c36,875$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes78c35,374$27,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,721.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No4c35,244$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.542025%5 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x388e…1867backed No11c34,541$3,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,939.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5060…a780backed Yes77c33,779$26,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,748.65666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes78c32,274$25,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,967.464163.4%26 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x69ef…0424backed No24c32,164$7,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,608.57540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+112.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked Yes79c31,549$25,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,498.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ac…c7e2backed No4c29,426$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+124.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa43a…94b2backed No6c27,319$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd7…78e0backed No10c25,993$2,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,605.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+271.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No14c24,717$3,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,414.713912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes72c24,378$17,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,874.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd89…7a8bbacked No26c24,015$6,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,259.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87d6…d1e7backed No1c22,390$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e37…67efbacked Yes72c22,251$16,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,170.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked No25c22,065$5,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,462425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b0…b8dcbacked No1c21,622$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe417…9a9fbacked No0c21,400$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe09d…4d10backed No0c21,204$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No21c21,149$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.7419.8%4 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51f5…2e8dbacked Yes61c20,516$12,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,006.23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dee…8ad7backed No26c20,458$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33dc…bb81backed Yes76c20,251$15,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,807.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc359…6231backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x925a…5373backed No1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No37c19,616$7,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,162.791136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fd…53dfbacked No0c19,177$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ad…69dfbacked Yes76c19,051$14,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,643.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes60c18,496$11,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,346.121435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4222…e501backed No0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed No0c17,977$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.061216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed No37c16,973$6,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,213.5960%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes77c16,892$13,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,851.721861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No11c16,621$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.141861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed No3c16,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4503721.6%8 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes76c16,346$12,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,903.9637844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes78c16,336$12,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,610.5714241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7589…143bbacked No34c16,297$5,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,508.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb1…ea72backed Yes65c16,222$10,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,617.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No18c16,179$2,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,974.2918425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…9e4cbacked No8c15,917$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3169…21b4backed No1c15,832$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b6…0be9backed Yes79c15,302$12,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,224.494100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+74.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ead…9572backed Yes77c15,006$11,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,414.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked No1c14,648$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.59714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick3cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e3d…6143backed Yes69c14,580$10,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,522.723100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63ac…5bfcbacked No5c13,938$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc821…6a7ebacked No29c13,864$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+41.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked No7c13,619$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.2950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…224ebacked Yes74c13,425$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,424.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69cc…2e44backed No9c13,334$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes76c13,140$9,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,178.11637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes77c12,964$9,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,032.192871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x245c…a6d0backed No1c12,499$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes74c12,365$9,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a90…03b5backed No5c12,329$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7992…48bfbacked Yes79c11,939$9,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,465.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c26…74bcbacked Yes77c11,692$8,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,706.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41dd…6e71backed No5c11,592$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked No21c11,400$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a80…5d2dbacked No9c11,111$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…ae74backed Yes68c10,735$7,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,480.394100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+271%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked No1c10,714$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a41…242abacked No30c10,461$3,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,122.82540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cf…3773backed No19c10,205$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed No8c10,156$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.512010%2 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-85.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x235e…5673backed Yes74c10,093$7,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,640.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1370…2cfdbacked Yes74c10,059$7,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,615.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5907…3b88backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a3…e10bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd3…a696backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba0b…7278backed No1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No25c10,000$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.972050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…e1e8backed No4c9,982$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2835…2b42backed Yes74c9,792$7,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,583.454100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+64.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No24c9,516$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.595832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.