Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd215b8330a35098a1a3f6c46b6492347edb5e74c1e0a95ac4d3d54aece6c262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,626,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,111,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,626,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc336…02abbacked No | 0c | 1,400,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 4cpaid | +371.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 1c | 152,595$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +193.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…7b0abacked No | 4c | 149,515$6,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,352.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 15c | 143,143$20,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,961.06 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3042…130cbacked No | 0c | 110,380$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 1c | 107,754$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.32 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…382abacked No | 1c | 99,010$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked No | 6c | 97,892$5,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,723.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b48…16c5backed No | 1c | 90,406$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 5c | 86,719$4,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500.64 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 1c | 82,865$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 0c | 63,628$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…fba3backed No | 5c | 56,673$3,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,045.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed No | 0c | 55,190$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed No | 0c | 53,828$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f4…8a29backed No | 0c | 50,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 5c | 45,202$2,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.87 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…61f9backed No | 40c | 40,734$16,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,293.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 10c | 40,296$3,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,935.53 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 9c | 40,131$3,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,725.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed No | 1c | 38,047$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1260…07cebacked Yes | 70c | 37,444$26,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,193.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked No | 23c | 37,292$8,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,430.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae2…f63abacked No | 1c | 36,875$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 78c | 35,374$27,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,721.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 4c | 35,244$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…1867backed No | 11c | 34,541$3,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,939.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed Yes | 77c | 33,779$26,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,748.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 78c | 32,274$25,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,967.46 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ef…0424backed No | 24c | 32,164$7,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,608.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 79c | 31,549$25,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,498.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ac…c7e2backed No | 4c | 29,426$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed No | 6c | 27,319$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…78e0backed No | 10c | 25,993$2,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,605.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +271.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 14c | 24,717$3,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,414.71 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 72c | 24,378$17,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,874.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd89…7a8bbacked No | 26c | 24,015$6,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,259.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…d1e7backed No | 1c | 22,390$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…67efbacked Yes | 72c | 22,251$16,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,170.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked No | 25c | 22,065$5,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,462 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…b8dcbacked No | 1c | 21,622$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe417…9a9fbacked No | 0c | 21,400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09d…4d10backed No | 0c | 21,204$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 21c | 21,149$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.7 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2e8dbacked Yes | 61c | 20,516$12,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,006.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dee…8ad7backed No | 26c | 20,458$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed Yes | 76c | 20,251$15,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,807.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc359…6231backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…5373backed No | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 37c | 19,616$7,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,162.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked No | 0c | 19,177$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…69dfbacked Yes | 76c | 19,051$14,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,643.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes | 60c | 18,496$11,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,346.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…e501backed No | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed No | 0c | 17,977$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 37c | 16,973$6,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,213.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 77c | 16,892$13,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,851.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 11c | 16,621$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed No | 3c | 16,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 76c | 16,346$12,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,903.96 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 78c | 16,336$12,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,610.57 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7589…143bbacked No | 34c | 16,297$5,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,508.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…ea72backed Yes | 65c | 16,222$10,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,617.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 18c | 16,179$2,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,974.29 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…9e4cbacked No | 8c | 15,917$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…21b4backed No | 1c | 15,832$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…0be9backed Yes | 79c | 15,302$12,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,224.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…9572backed Yes | 77c | 15,006$11,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,414.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked No | 1c | 14,648$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 3cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…6143backed Yes | 69c | 14,580$10,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,522.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…5bfcbacked No | 5c | 13,938$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc821…6a7ebacked No | 29c | 13,864$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 7c | 13,619$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…224ebacked Yes | 74c | 13,425$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,424.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed No | 9c | 13,334$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 76c | 13,140$9,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,178.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 77c | 12,964$9,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,032.19 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…a6d0backed No | 1c | 12,499$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 74c | 12,365$9,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,164.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…03b5backed No | 5c | 12,329$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7992…48bfbacked Yes | 79c | 11,939$9,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…74bcbacked Yes | 77c | 11,692$8,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…6e71backed No | 5c | 11,592$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 21c | 11,400$2,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,413.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…5d2dbacked No | 9c | 11,111$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed Yes | 68c | 10,735$7,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,480.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +271%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 1c | 10,714$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked No | 30c | 10,461$3,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,122.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…3773backed No | 19c | 10,205$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 8c | 10,156$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.51 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Yes | 74c | 10,093$7,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1370…2cfdbacked Yes | 74c | 10,059$7,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5907…3b88backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…e10bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…a696backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7278backed No | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 25c | 10,000$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,479.97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…e1e8backed No | 4c | 9,982$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed Yes | 74c | 9,792$7,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 24c | 9,516$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.59 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?this page
- Will Trump visit China by April 30?No won
- Will Trump visit China by June 30?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by March 31?No won
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by May 8?No won
- Will Trump visit China by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.